Ace Michael King is on the hill for the Padres, who are 12-1 with a +48 run differential at home. They've also had a day off while the Rays played a late game Thursday before traveling. The Rays have lost 13 of 20 and six of nine. The most likely outcome is the Padres by multiple runs, so we're riding the run line.

San Diego is 12-1 at home, but I bet on the Rays to at least be tied through five innings. They enter off consecutive wins in Arizona, scoring seven runs in each. Tampa Bay starter Shane Baz (2-0, 3.22 ERA) has fanned 30 in 22.1 innings and can match San Diego's Michael King, who has surrendered a 43.1 percent hard-hit rate this season. King owns a lifetime 6.38 ERA versus the Rays.

The Rays come off back-to-back extra-inning games in Arizona so their bullpen is pretty well shredded. It's also the first road start of the season for Shane Baz, so that's always a minor adjustment. San Diego's Michael King is 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA in three home starts. The Dads are 12-1 at home.