This is one of those times I really wish we had pitcher to win prop as I'd prefer that on former Marlin Jesus Luzardo of the Phillies priced only -125. But if he's as dominant as I think he will be today, then this should certainly cash too. Miami isn't a very good offensive team as it is but lost one of its better hitters (not saying much) to injury in Saturday's loss in Griffin Conine (.281) -- the second starting outfielder to go down this week. When your team is relying heavily on former Cubs castoff/bust Matt Mervis, as the Fish are offensively, that's probably not ideal.

Connor Gillispie doesn't have major league stuff and that is playing out as the sample size expands against him. Facing this lineup will be his biggest challenge yet, especially in that ballpark on a warm spring day. Jesus Luzardo is still pretty filthy and he will be up to face his old team. The Phillies' bullpen is horrible, which gives me some pause, but the aren't going to blow a monster lead two days in a row to this Marlins outfit and I very much expect them to get a healthy lead here.