Pepiot has ace stuff and another offseason in the Rays pitching incubator under his belt. He allowed 1 ER in 4 of his last 6 outings dating to '24. He understands how to limit damage and has swing-and-miss stuff when he needs it. The Pirates bats are slumbering and not sure they wake up in a day game vs this young arm here. Pirates have scored just 12 runs in innings 1-6 all season, with a .574 OPS in this innings (24th() and a 27.6% K rate (6th worst in MLB). They are already pressing and we will get some "B" options in a day game after a night game.

Paul Skenes sure doesn't seem likely to give up more than a run in the first five innings against the Rays on Wednesday, and Tampa Bay's Ryan Pepiot is no slouch on the other side. The Pirates aren't hitting with just three runs in their past three games, so that's why I couldn't justify a cheap Pittsburgh ML -- and the team's bullpen still stinks. More of the same from 2024 basically. It's really, really hot already down here in Florida (this summer is gonna be rough) but the winds apparently won't factor in Tampa.

Paul Skenes is most likely not going to throw a complete-game shutout, especially as he still builds up innings after being shutdown early last year (though we did get a 9-inning CG last night by Nathan Eovaldi, how bout that?). The Pirates' pen stinks, the closer was just sent to AAA and their ABs have been pathetic overall this season. Ryan Pepiot is a legit arm for the Rays, they have a pen and they are already getting scrappy production from unusual sources (the Rays way). Vibes feel way off for the Bucs.