I'm taking almost any player in the major leagues (a few circumstances where I wouldn't; wind blowing out in Colorado or Luis Arraez facing some journeyman pitcher, stuff along those lines) when offered Under 1.5 hits at a price at less than -200. Bohm has had two hits in each of the first two games and yeah this may lose, but the math says we have to. Don't really look at models for hit props, but ours has Bohm at 1.07.

Solid chance that All-Stars Trea Turner and JT Realmuto are out for the Phils today; almost surely Realmuto will be sitting after leaving Saturday, while Turner missed that one. Why push it when you have already won a road series and your home opener is Monday when you know both guys want to be out there? It's the season debut for Nats starter Mitchell Parker, who had a 2.65 ERA at home last year compared to 6.61 away.

The Nats are about to send a police escort to get the Phils out of town. Philly is on the verge of a sweep after scoring 11 on Saturday, as Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh all homered on when Philly pounded out 14 hits. More good news could be in the offing on Sunday with starter Aaron Nola, who was 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA in four starts vs. the Nats a year ago, including a pair of wins in Washington. This looks a tough ask for Nats starter Mitchell Parker, who was destroyed at Citizens Bank Park last August 15, allowing 9 runs and 10 hits before being chased after three innings in a 13-3 Phils romp. Play Phillies on Run Line.

Aaron Nola's last outing vs the Nats last season was rough - but he's been unreal vs them in general the last 3 years. The Nats' youth in really showing overall, their pen has been a disaster and I just don't buy Mitchell Parker on the mound. He nibbled his way through 2024 better than I thought but was getting exposed by Sept more and more and gave up 9 ER in 3 IP last time he saw this mashing Phillies lineup. I will be fading Nats quite a bit in division games when McKenzie Gore is not on the bump.