The New York Yankees will face Kutter Crawford for the third time this season. I am sure they remember the last outing, seven shutout innings on Sunday Night Baseball. New York was in a similar spot last season and won 5-1. Kutter has an ERA of 3.33; however, his FIP is 4.24, which is concerning. Marcus Stroman has pitched better on the road (2.50 ERA) than Yankee Stadium (4.47). He’s holding this Red Sox offense to a .164 batting average and .430 OPS in 61 career at-bats. The Yankees bullpen has allowed the seventh-fewest hits (302), while Boston has the fifth most (366). New York is ranked eighth in run prevention (+9), while Boston is ranked 24th (-10).

The demise of the Yankees can be traced to a series vs Bos around 6 weeks ago when the then-scalding NY team starting falling apart and Boston ran all over their hack catchers and embarrassed then a few times on national TV. Sox have gained like 12 games on them since. Marcus Stroman is very meh and a ticking timebomb, Yankees pen is broken and the lineup outside of two guys have folded up and quit. Yanks specializing in heartbreaking losses; bottom 5 team since June. Kutter Crawford worked 13 IP vs NYY with 7 hits and 3 ER. Sox have won 3 of his last 4 starts. Judge has .188 career avg vs Crawford (thought does have 2 HR) and Soto is 1/6.

Not a huge "double-upper" on a single game as we already played a Kutter Crawford prop. But my ears burn when a double-digit total is posted that isn't in Coors Field. We usually win more of those than we lose, although it didn't work out the other night in Anaheim. But does anything work in Anaheim? I obviously think Crawford will be good for 5.1 innings at least, and NYY's Marcus Stroman actually has been far better on the road. No crazy winds at Fenway or anything.

Not sure how to say this: I am never prepared to lose a bet and certainly am not on this one ... but I feel like I am missing something. And I hate that. Why so low? Eight straight Crawford starts topped this until last time out at the Dodgers, and we forgive anyone getting lit up in LA (5.0 innings). The Sox used six relief pitchers Friday. The SL Model has Crawford with 5.4 innings.