Kinda irked I haven't been on the Padres train of late but they are a team that seems to lose whenever I back them -- like the Blue Jays or this year the Cubs. No Luis Arraez today and feels like a possible letdown ahead of a big series in Baltimore starting Friday. Dylan Cease has been great of late but knowing Cease well, he's due a clunker and also has been worse on the road. I will almost always prefer +1.5 on a home team to -1.5 on a road team. Yes, I'm aware Patrick Corbin is pitching today but the Nats have been embarrassed in B2B games. Corbin pitched really well in SD in June.

The Padres are suddenly running roughshod on this road trip, winning four straight by a combined 33-7 (33-7!) scoreline. Last night, it was 20 runs in D.C., and by the way he has pitched lately, we don't think Dylan Cease (no runs and only TWO HITS allowed across 13 IP in his last two starts, shutouts of the Braves and Guardians) is going to need that much support. San Diego is thus far brutalizing Washington in this series, and the Nats might cringe at the prospect of sending Patrick Corbin (5.35 ERA) to the mound, even as he won his last start vs. the Reds...Washington had lost in 10 of his previous 11 outings. Play Padres on Run Line

We have to fade Patrick Corbin. Because, well, Nats are 2-10 in his last 12 starts with 8 loses of 2 runs or more in that span. Dylan Cease is in the zone for the Padres and the Nats aren't showing much heart or fight lately after playing over their heads in the first half. Padres dominated the first two games of this series and many of Friars top bats have strong splits vs Corbin (but doesn't everybody?).

The Padres have won five straight over the Nationals and go for the sweep of the Nationals today before they head to Baltimore. This is quite a road trip they're building that they have they won four straight and have climbed to four games over .500. The Nationals were playing quite well winning five or six games before the Padres came to town. Dylan Cease is on the mound and the way they're playing the run line sounds appropriate.