Texas enters off a three-game sweep in Milwaukee -- couldn't even beat Dallas Keuchel -- and has dropped six in a row away. Both of the Rangers' top relievers pitched Wednesday so they may not be ready here. Texas starter Jon Gray has has a 3.03 ERA, which would be a career best, but also a 4.31 xERA and 3.79 SIERA, so he's due for regression. This is why the Orioles got Corbin Burnes: To start a winning streak. The Birds snapped a four-game skid Wednesday. I may look at a Cedric Mullins hitting prop as he's batting .407 with two homers, four RBI and seven runs scored over his past seven. This was as high as -220 and not sure why dropped.

Hopping in here with Propstarz, as this number on Jon Gray is too low. Priced at least about 40 cents from where it should be, 4.5 is probably the number this ends up at. Gray has had a relief appearance and a dud start recently that kept his pitch count down in those outings, but got up around 75 last time out through six innings and can easily get into the 90's when going five or six innings here. That's a lot of work for a 3.5 line on a guy with a near 13% swinging strike rate. Available on MGM for the -145 right now!

This number is simply way too low for Jon Gray who is running cold on strikeouts and is averaging the highest SwStr% of his career. While Gray may be a regression candidate, hes generating a ton of whiffs and he is due for some serious positive regression in the strikeout department. While this would certainly qualify as a difficult matchup against a stingy and explosive Orioles lineup, they still possess a 21.1% K Rate and possess the 15th highest overall K Rate in the MLB. My model has a significant edge on this line.