Bryce Harper has scored in 10 of the past 12 games, and I like him to do it again Thursday against the lowly Marlins. Harper has an 1.197 OPS in June, a 1.086 OPS at home, and a 1.003 OPS against left-handed pitching. Miami lefty Trevor Rogers comes in with a career-high hard-hit percentage of 44.5, and a 5.10 expected ERA.

Thursday, the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins will meet for their second series. In the first series all three games went over the total, including Trevor Rogers giving up nine hits in an 8-2 loss. Even ace Zack Wheeler had issues against the Marlins as he gave up six runs on six hits. Take the over to hit for the fourth straight game between the Phillies and Marlins.

We expected to lay a price on the Run Line with the Phillies, though this isn't as bad as we were expecting. After all, we haven't even reached July or the halfway point of the season and the Phils are flying 25 games above the Marlins in the NL East standings into today. Miami's season-long offensive issues haven't abated, and several decent efforts on the mound by Thursday starter Trevor Rogers haven't been rewarded, as the Marlins have lost in 13 of his 15 starts. Given that Zack Wheeler has a 1.66 ERA at CBP this season for the Phils, we were thinking this Run Line price might be a lot more prohibitive. Play Phillies on Run Line

There are a million reasons to fade the Fish, and doing so when Trevor Rogers pitches has been an especially sound approach. Miami is 2-13 when he starts, with 12 of those losses by two or more runs. Last time he faced the mighty Phillies, he allowed nine hits in 3.1 innings, then hit the showers. The Phillies are clearly the best team in the NL, they can score in bunches, and they've scored eight on Miami in two of the three prior meetings. The Phils are 9-3 in Zack Wheeler's last 12 starts, winning eight of those by at least two runs.

The Phillies are 31-12 at home this season while the Marlins are 12-25 on the road. Trevor Rogers hasn't been too bad of late, but the Phillies own him (6.99 ERA in 10 career starts). Zack Wheeler is a Cy Young-caliber pitcher and has a 1.66 ERA at home this season. Let's not think too hard, as the most likely outcome is a Phillies win by multiple runs. Take the run line (-1.5, -140).