Nola is rolling and the Phil’s are great first 5. We push on a tie

Sometimes we can be guilty of overthinking the handicap of these MLB games, when the correct course might be no more difficult than to find which of the teams is winning games, and which isn't. Case in point tonight in Detroit, where the Tigers have lost six of the last nine starts made by Casey Mize (who also has a subpar 5.27 ERA since the beginning of May), and Detroit overall is just 5-11 in its last 16 as it loses contact with the leaders in the AL Central. Meanwhile, the Phils have won 12 of the last 14 starts made by Aaron Nola, who usually hands a lead to his capable bullpen in the later innings. Play Phillies on Run Line

Aaron Nola's strikeout numbers are down compared to previous seasons and his underlying metrics reflect his numbers declining. On the surface this is a cause for concern, however there is some contextual support that may go unnoticed. Nola is maybe the most durable pitcher of his generation. He also frequently pitches deep into the postseason and I believe he's learned how to use the regular season to ensure that he's peaking come August/September. Over the last 3 seasons I have observed Nola get off to what I misidentified as a slow start, only for his strikeout numbers/metrics to both improve as the season progressed. Lastly this is a really tasty matchup against a Tigers lineup that strikes out a ton.

Casey Mize has been far better at home than on the road for the Tigers, so he has that going for him. But he gets no swing and miss or chase and if you can't use that to neutralize some of these PHI bats, you are cooked. Mize has a 6.04 ERA, allowing a .358 BA, in his last 6 starts, with just 14 K in 25 1/2 IP. PHI has covered in 5 of Aaron Nola's last 7 starts. Philly lineup lengthened with Trea Turner back in form. Tigers cannot touch quality pitching