We can stop worrying about the Pirates going undefeated this season after Wednesday's loss at Nats Park. But we haven't seen Pittsburgh score runs like this since the last millennium, banging out 42 across the first six games...the Pirates can slug! More likely damage caused today against Josiah Gray, who was hit very hard (seven runs, all earned, and eight hits in just 4 IP) by the Reds when losing last Thursday's opener in Cincy. Derek Shelton also not likely to stick with starter Martin Perez beyond five innings as the Buc bullpen will be called upon for extended work again. Play Pirates-Nats "Over"

Pirates should be priced closer to -150. This is a fade of Josiah Gray, who was shellacked in his season debut against the Reds (4.0 IP, 8 H, 7 ER). The underlying metrics from his last start and past three seasons don't suggest he will improve anytime soon. Pittsburgh's offense might be a bit underrated, as it ranks sixth in the MLB in wOBA.

Pirates lost their first game of the season yesterday. Today, the Pirates send out Martin Perez, who had a solid first outing with Pittsburgh, 4.1 innings, six hits and one earned run. The Nationals have not favored well against lefties to start the year. In four games, they’re batting .171 with a .382 OPS, last in the league. Last season, when pitching in day games, Washington’s Josiah Gray owned a 4.32 ERA with 28 walks in 11 starts. The Pirates have been hitting .278 with .800 OPS as team thus far.

We won on this tonight because I had no faith in Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller, and he was bad. Not quite as little faith in Martin Perez for this one but have to run it back as the oddsmakers still are overvaluing the Bucs a bit. Nats starter Josiah Gray was ripped in his first outing but that was in hitter-friendly Cincinnati. He went 1-1 with a 2.19 ERA and a .178 opponents' average against the Pirates in 2023.