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Texas has yet to lose a game this post-season. The Rangers, as a team, have the third best batting statistics in the playoffs, hitting .268 with a .877 OPS. Houston is sixth, hitting .243 with a .737 OPS. Nathan Eovaldi has only allowed two earned runs in 13.2 innings in October. Since his no-hitter on August 1st, Framber Valdez has allowed three earned runs, or more, in seven of his last 11 starts and has lost his last four home starts.
Texas' top four hitters went 1 for 16 with no walks in Game 1, yet the Rangers still won to remain unbeaten in the playoffs. Nate Eovaldi is back to his pre-injury form, fanning 15 with no walks in 13.2 playoff innings. Framber Valdez has the championship pedigree but he allowed a 47 percent hard-hit rate after the All-Star Break. Back the road dogs.
Will throw a half-unit on the Under with the news that Astros star Yordan Alvarez is battling a virus (is in lineup but not ideal for my Houston pick) and that sensational Texas rookie Evan Carter is taking a seat (helps the Houston pick) simply because Houston is throwing a lefty.
The pitching has been so good for the Rangers in the postseason, allowing two runs or fewer in five of their six playoff wins (against just one loss), that we are compelled to look 'under" again for Game 2 in Houston. Nathan Eovaldi has rediscovered his early-season form, allowing just 2 runs across 13 2/3 IP in a pair of playoff wins vs. the Rays and O's, and Dusty Baker is not going to stick with Framber Valdez for too long if he struggles as he has in recent outings (9.22 ERA last three starts). Play Rangers-Astros "Under"
Paraphrasing the late, great Chic Anderson as he called the 1973 Belmont for CBS, "The Rangers are moving like a tremendous machine!" Secretariat comparisons are appropriate for a Texas team now on a 6-game playoff heater and already stealing home field from the Astros in the ALCS. Moreover, Monday starter Nathan Eovaldi has regained his early-season form, with two superb outings in which he's allowed just 2 runs and 11 hits (with 15 Ks and 0 walks) across 13 2/3 IP vs. the Rays and Orioles. Recent efforts by Framber Valdez on the Houston side have not been as good (9.22 ERA across last three starts), and note the Astros are just 1-2 at Minute Maid Park this postseason.
Texas is playing out of its mind right now. Did the Rangers not get the message that you aren't supposed to win six playoff games in a row when a dog/on road in five of them? I'd gladly take Texas RL here if it priced reasonably, but it's simply not. And there is something different today: A lefty starter in Framber Valdez. It's the first southpaw starter Texas has seen this postseason. That may not matter but Astros only -120, well, we have to fall into the potential trap again. I may play the Under again (at least that mostly covered the Game 1 ML loss) but will think about that. It if got to 9 I would do it but it likely won't.