If you looked at these pitcher’s numbers with a blindfold, it’s really only the Gerrit Cole strikeouts that would be the one giveaway. Cal Quantrill is 15-5 with a 3.38 ERA this season, Gerrit Cole is 13-8 with a 3.50 ERA this season. Cal Quantrill has also been pitching a lot better lately, he is 9-0 with a 2.94 ERA in his last 15 starts, Cole is 5-6 with a 4.01 ERA in his last 15 starts. The Guardians also have the better bullpen, so I actually think this pitching matchup is a lot more even than the public thinks. The Yankees are expected to get back some help in their lineup and the Guardians are prone to laying an egg with the bats. All the pressure is on the Yankees, the Guardians are playing with house money and this young team is ignorant to the pressure. The value on the Guardians here is too good to pass up.

The Yankees beat Cleveland 5-1 in the season series, but none of those came after the All-Star break when the Yankees plunged quickly. They started the season 64-28 and went 35-35 after the break. The Yankees have ace Gerrit Cole at home, where they went 57-24 this season. It’s a big home edge and it’s reflected in the price. The Yankees had a great September. But Cleveland won 16 of Cal Quantrill's last 17 starts, including his last six. Cole gets the yips in the playoffs. Cole has allowed 17 runs between his last five 2022 starts, with nine homers allowed. Take Cleveland to win.

I will not bet on Gerrit Cole ... I will not bet on Gerrit Cole. Dang it, I'm betting on Gerrit Cole. He was dominant in two starts vs. the Guardians this year. Cal Quantrill is absolute money at home for Cleveland but usually quite a different guy on the road. He was meh in his lone start at Yankee Stadium this year.