Chris Sale is starting for Boston tonight, but that's not the good news it usually is for the Red Sox. No offense in baseball has hit lefties better than the Astros this year, as they lead MLB in wRC+ against them and pair that with the lowest strikeout rate in the league. Considering Boston has the worst defense in MLB according to Outs Above Average, balls in play is the last thing Boston wants to deal with.

Both clubs got their bats in a groove in the ALDS, and both come off three straight Overs. Chris Sale lasted one inning and allowed five runs in his only ALDS start against the Rays, and his team came back to win, 14-6. Framber Valdez went 4.1 innings in his last start, allowing four runs in a 9-4 win against the White Sox. Over is the top play.

The Astros led the AL in runs, hits, average and on-base percentage. They were the second most difficult team to strikeout. They were third in slugging. It's an incredibly-well-rounded lineup that crushes lefties. Red Sox starter Chris Sale had a rough final few weeks of the regular season and then coughed up five runs in one inning to the Rays in the ALDS. I love the Astros' offense here. On the other side, Framber Valdez saw the Red Sox twice this year and held them to two runs in 14 2/3 innings. I'm not expecting domination or anything, but he'll be good enough along with the bullpen to keep this workable for the Astros' high-powered offense.

If you look at the averages up and down these lineups, both teams are absolutely mashing the ball right now. Multiple hitters are going well on both sides and both these starting pitchers were hit hard in their first start this postseason. Neither manager will be inclined to waste their best relievers if this game isn’t close, so I think we could get a backdoor cover here even if there isn’t a ton of scoring.

We have a battle of southpaws in Game 1 in Houston between Chris Sale and Framber Valdez. Valdez was actually hit hard in the playoffs for the first time in his career against the White Sox, but the White Sox are one of the best lefty hitting teams in the league. Chris Sale has actually been very bad in his career in the playoffs, including his only start this postseason where he allowed 5 ER in the first inning before being removed. The Astros were ranked 4th in the league in wOBA against lefties this season but the Red Sox weren’t too far behind at 8th. I am guessing the Red Sox will go with Tanner Houck or Nick Pivetta out of the bullpen to piggyback Sale if they are up, but I think the Astros will take an early lead and hopefully keep either of those guys from coming in the game.

Surprised that Alex Cora is going with Chris Sale over Nathan Eovaldi. Sale might have name recognition but wasn't particularly good in his final two regular-season outings and lasted just one inning in the ALDS vs. Tampa Bay, allowing five runs. Houston had the No. 4 OPS during the regular season vs. lefties. The Red Sox, meanwhile, were just four games over .500 vs. southpaws this year and were dominated by one in Game 1 of the ALDS. They face Houston lefty Framber Valdez, who was 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA in two starts this year vs. Boston -- which is 5-13 in its past 18 games as a road underdog.