The absence of J.D. Martinez is a boost for New York, which has beaten the Red Sox in six straight games. Gerrit Cole was specifically brought in for situations like this, and while he has struggled a bit recently, he should be able to keep the Yankees in this game. Cole is a phenomenal 12-0 in decisions when the Yankees get at least three runs of support for him, which they have done in 10 of the last 12 games they’ve played to end the regular season. Back New York tonight.

This is a win-or-go-home wild card game for both teams on a cool night in Boston with the winds blowing in, which is a great scenario for the Under. With so much on the line both teams will quickly pull any pitcher who doesn’t have command of the ball, as there’s no margin for error. The temperature is cool enough to stop the ball from carrying but not so cold that the pitchers can’t get a good grip. Both bullpens are also rested and ready to go. Take the Under in plus pitching conditions.

Gerrit Cole has give up 15 runs in his last three outings, good for a 7.64 ERA. I don't think he'll be bad -- I did pick the Yankees to win on the money line, after all -- but there's reason to believe he'll cough up a few runs. Just over a week ago, the Yankees tagged Nathan Eovaldi for seven runs in 2 2/3 innings. Both bullpens can be leaky as well. I don't think this will be a slugfest or anything, but 5-4 gets us home here and that seems pretty likely.

Gerrit Cole has been far from inspiring here down the stretch, but he's ultimately the better pitcher and we'll bet on that. Plus, the Red Sox just lost two of three to the Orioles before flirting with two losses to the Nationals before surviving by the skin of their proverbial teeth. They'll also be missing J.D. Martinez. The better team with the better starting pitcher is the pick.

Just gave this out on Early Edge -- Yanks pitcher Gerrit Cole has burned us many times this season, but he has a very good playoff track record and Boston's Nathan Eovaldi doesn't. In addition, the Sox will be without second baseman Jose Iglesias, who had hit .356 for Boston since being claimed off waivers (ineligible for playoffs) in early September and potentially also without All-Star DH JD Martinez due to a fluke injury suffered Sunday. The bullpen edge is hugely to New York as well.

The Red Sox have won three straight while the Yankees have lost three of their last five. New York RHP Gerrit Cole’s last three starts are concerning. They all went Over the total, and the Yankees lost two of them. He allowed 15 runs in those outings - one of which was an 8-3 win at Fenway Park on Sept. 24 against Boston RHP Nathan Eovaldi, who gets the start on Tuesday after surrendering seven runs over 2 2/3 innings in that outing. The Over is the top play.

My model says the Red Sox cover in well over 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value with them at this number. Boston was swept at home by the Yankees while losing five of six games overall but broke out of the slump by finishing the regular season with three straight victories at Washington. Meanwhile, New York lost three of four before recording a walk-off victory over Tampa Bay in its finale. The Red Sox have won seven of their last eight postseason games against the Yankees. Take Boston +1.5 runs at -160.

Can you ask for anything more in a winner take all Wild Card game? The Yankees opted not to pitch Gerrit Cole on short rest on Sunday so he could start the Wild Card game. He has seriously struggled lately but if there is anyone that can lock it in for one start, it’s him. Cole hasn’t had the best success against the Red Sox either this season, although he also hasn’t been terrible. However, Cole in the playoffs is a different beast. He has a 2.68 ERA in the playoffs, and he has allowed more than 2 runs just twice in 8 playoff starts his last 2 postseasons. Nathan Eovaldi was just hit hard by the Yankees in Boston and his only playoff experience was in 2018 where he only made 2 starts, although he did pitch well. The Yankees also have the luxury of going to their AL leading bullpen while the Red Sox are hit or miss with just about all their relievers. I think playing on the road will also settle the Yankees instead of the pressure that would come in a home Wild Card game if they were to go down early. Take the Yankees and their pitching staff.