The Padres are 2-8 in their last 10 road games and 7-8 since the trade deadline. The Padres are 27-31 on the road and their bullpen is gassed. Yet, they signed Jake Arrieta to start today who is 0-6 with a 10.51 ERA since May. Chi Chi Gonzalez isn’t much better but he did pitch a quality start in San Diego earlier this season and the Rockies are 40-21 at home this season. This could be an ugly game with a lot of lead changes but I have a hard time believing the Padres should be this big of favorites on the road right now. Take the home dog.

As the highest total we've seen in a long time implies, there will be lots of scoring here. Chi Chi Gonzalez is not a good starter, but Jake Arrieta is brutal. In his last 15 starts, he has an 8.95 ERA while allowing the opponents to hit .355/.421/.645. Now he's in Coors where the Rockies hit .286/.347/.491 as a team. He won't last long and the depleted Padres' 'pen is already overworked. And remember, we stick with what works here. The Rockies are 40-21 at home, meaning they play like a 106-win team at home. The Padres have a losing road record and overall a losing record since the start of July. Take the home 'dog.

This total has risen from an overnight of 13 to where it's the highest number of the season (see news feed) and just out of principle I have to take the Under. The wind isn't blowing out at Coors Field. I get why the number is so high between two bad starting pitchers in Jake Arrieta (Padres debut) and Chi Chi Gonzalez (fill-in for Austin Gomber), but I'll take my chances at two TDs (and PATs). Both clubs are off Thursday so can use their bullpens heavily.

Huge total even for Coors Field as these teams wrap up their series in the thin air. Both will have fill-in starting pitchers for various reasons, but the model still finds this number quite a bit too high with 64 percent of simulations landing Under 13 runs. The Under is 14-5 in Colorado's past 19 at home.