Andrew Abbott looks to stymie the lowly White Sox. …

FanDuel at under 16.5 outs @-118 - OK to under 15.5. Freddy Peralta has put together an excellent start to 2025, pitching to a 2.18 ERA (2.97 xERA). However the Brewers ace struggles with his pitch efficiency. Peralta is under 16.5 outs in five of his eight starts, and his 4.13 pitches per plate appearance is the 14th highest out of 134 qualifiers. Those struggles have been magnified on the road where Peralta is under this line in four of five starts (the one over was against the White Sox), with an 11.6% walk rate and 4.18 pitches per plate appearance. And the kicker here is that Peralta tweaked his groin in his last outing, causing this start to be pushed back a few days.

DraftKings. Bet it to -160. I’ll lay a little juice here to buy on Pablo Lopez’ recent strikeout surge. He’s cleared this line in each of his last four starts, and is coming off an 11-strikeout performance against the Orioles. He now gets the Giants who own a 25.7% strikeout rate in away games against righties this season (across 569 plate appearances, the sixth highest mark).

DraftKings / BetMGM. Tylor Megill has only cleared this line in one of his seven starts, and that was against the free-swinging Nationals. The Cubs are more patient - they rank 12th in pitches per plate appearance, and have the ninth lowest chase rate. Megill has solid stuff, but is 131st in zone percentage out of 168 pitchers with at least 20 innings thrown. And Megill also sees his production decline each time through the order, resulting in quick hooks the third time through.

FanDuel. Logan Webb, one of the most under-appreciated pitchers in baseball, is once again putting together a strong season. Pitching to a 2.61 ERA (2.86 xERA). With 56 strikeouts in 48.1 innings, Webb has cleared this line in six of his seven fully stretched out starts. His 28.7% strikeout rate is a career high, and due in part to his tweaked changeup. Particularly dominant against righties (30.7% strikeout rate), he should have no issue today racking up the strikeouts today. The Twins will start 5-6 righties today, and are in the top 12 of strikeout rate and called plus swinging strike rate over the last two weeks.

DraftKings. Hunter Brown has vaulted to the front of the AL Cy Young race: pitching to a 1.67 ERA, he’s racked up 49 strikeouts in 43 innings (clearing this total in 5/7 starts). He now gets the Reds who have a 23.7% K% versus righties in away games, and own the sixth highest called plus swinging strike rate as a team. Facing a righty in an away game coming off travel, the Reds have struggled: Logan Webb pitched 7 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts, Max Meyer had 14 strikeouts over 6 scoreless frames, and AJ Smith-Shawver just carved the Reds up for 8 shutout innings with 5 punch-outs. I’d bet this up to -155.

DraftKings. Brandon Pfaadt has allowed at least six hits in four of seven starts, including consecutive nine-hit outings. Now he has the unenviable task of facing the Dodgers, who own a collective .262 batting average against righties (.299 over the last two weeks). Pfaadt has faced this lineup plenty, allowing eight of the nine hitters in today’s lineup to hit an evenly distributed .300 against him (18/80). With the Diamondbacks in the middle of stretch of 16 days with no days off, I expect Pfaadt, who has always been afforded a longer leash, to pitch deeper into this game, for better or worse.

DraftKings / Caesar’s. Dean Kremer is coming off a strong start against the Royals at home, but he’s struggled in the rest of his starts. He’s failed to reach six innings in six of seven outings, pitching to a 5.73 ERA (5.21 xERA). His underlying metrics are rough as well: a .288 expected batting average is in the fifteenth percentile of all pitchers. And he’s been brutal on the road with an 8.17 ERA. To top it off, opponents are hitting 16/38 with three home runs, the third time through the order (1.173 OPS). The Twins are a patient team (4.0 pitches per plate appearance is second most), and are hitting well of late (.736 OPS and 111 wRC+ versus righties the last two weeks).

FanDuel at -102. There’s enough variables here for me to take the under on Sanchez’s outs prop. He did make it out of his last start unscathed, but I doubt they push him much past 90 pitches with the arm soreness issue lingering. The bullpen is fresh, and the Rays are one of the more patient teams in baseball (9th most pitches per plate appearance and the 8th lowest chase rate). Sanchez has historically been significantly less effective and efficient on the road, and this is a stadium in which he’s never pitched a regular game.

DraftKings. Kodai Senga has only cleared this line in three of his six starts, but does have four strikeouts in each start. After a slow ramp up, he’s now working under no pitch limitations. He’ll get the Diamondbacks again (6 strikeouts in his last outing) - Arizona strikes out more against righties (22.3% over the last two weeks is the tenth highest mark in baseball). And with Arizona likely starting 6-7 left handed hitters, Senga should be able to unleash his forkball at will. Thirteen of the last 15 non-opener righties have cleared this line against the D-Backs. I’d bet this up to -150.

DraftKings. Sonny Gray has cleared this line in four of his six fully stretched out starts. One miss was in his last outing against the potent Mets lineup, while the other was due to being pulled after 71 pitches on a freezing day against these Pirates. Gray pitched very well in that start, only allowing three hits and one run over five innings, and has traditionally had success against this Pirates lineup. Pittsburgh has had plenty of offensive woes this season - they’re at an 82 wRC+ and .638 OPS against righties over the last 2 weeks.

DraftKings. David Peterson has failed to clear this line in four of his six starts. He hasn’t earned his manager’s trust the third time through the batting order, having allowed an .869 OPS and being pulled at less than 90 pitches the last two outings. This includes his last start against the Diamondbacks, who were patient with Peterson, averaging 4.2 pitches per plate appearance. Now at home, I’ll back the Diamondbacks offense to break through. I’d bet this down to under 16.5 outs.

DraftKings. Chris Sale started the season slow, but has acquitted himself well over his last two starts. Overall, he’s cleared this line in four pf his seven starts, including three of the last four. His underlying metrics have been there this season, with a 30% called plus swinging strike rate, and an xERA of 3.31 - I’m not put off by his 4.84 ERA. And he gets a Reds lineup that’s league average producing against lefties. I’d bet this up to -145.

Caesar’s. Bowden Francis has really struggled this season. Pitching to a 5.28 ERA and a 7.45 expected ERA, his 51% hard hit rate sits in the fifth percentile. He’s remained under this line in four of six starts this season, with lefties registering a 1.016 OPS against him. The Guardians will stack lefties today, likely starting six to seven. Even with Joseph Ramirez likely sitting, I don’t see Francis with a lot of leeway the third time through the batting order. The bullpen is fresh and the Blue Jays have an off day tomorrow.

FanDuel (1.2 betting units for me). Garrett Crochet has cleared this strikeout line in four of his seven starts this season, with two of those misses against the Blue Jays, who have the sixth lowest strikeout rate against lefties. Today’s matchup, the Twins, have the third highest strikeout rate against lefties thus far (26.9%), with a measly .613 OPS against southpaws. There are some minor weather concerns, but it does look like we should avoid any in-game delays.