Prop's Picks (2 Live)
Prop's Past Picks
DraftKings. Chris Paddack has been pitching better of late, but he’s still under this outs line in eight of his ten starts. He remains inefficient with his workload, needing 4.01 pitches per plate appearance (30th highest out of 133 qualifiers). The Rays have six hitters in their lineup who see above average pitches per plate appearance, and Tampa as a team is hot at the plate, with an .810 OPS versus righties over the last week. Great hitting conditions on a hot, muggy night at Steinbrenner Field as well.
FanDuel. Dylan Cease has cleared this strikeout prop line in eight of his ten starts, including a seven punch out performance earlier this season against the Braves. His overall production has been up and down, but he’s coming off three straight stellar performances. I expect the Padres to lean on Cease for as many innings as possible, given the impromptu bullpen day yesterday.
FanDuel. This is a great spot for Tarik Skubal. He’s cleared this in seven of his last nine games, including each of the last five. He’s surpassed eleven strikeouts in each of his last three home starts. And Skubal gets a very watered down Guardians lineup today - six hitters with a 27.5% K% or worse against lefties this season. And one who doesn’t, Carlos Santana, Skubal has had success striking out (6 Ks in 17 PAs).
DraftKings. The Angels are surging, having won their last eight games. The right-handed heavy lineup will face Cal Quantrill to start tonight’s contest. Quantrill has been bad (6.37 ERA, 5.66 xERA), while allowing righties to hit 31/79 against him, with a 1.062 OPS. Jose Soriano has been excellent the first two times through the opposing batting order (.677 OPS allowed), and his elite ground ball rate should play well today. Miami is hitting to a .689 OPS against ground ball pitchers. The Marlins also rank second to last with just 1.29 runs in the first five innings in away games.
DraftKings. Jack Leiter is coming off three consecutive starts clearing this outs line. He’ll now get the White Sox, who continue to struggle at the plate (75 wRC+ and .625 OPS versus righties is the worst mark in baseball over the last two weeks). Where Leiter can struggle is with his control, but the White Sox have the second lowest walk rate as a team.
Caesar’s. Sandy Alcantara has yet to regain his Cy Young form from before his elbow injury. He’s failed to clear this line in eight of his nine starts this season, while pitching to a 7.99 ERA (5.31 xERA). While his pitch velocity and movement has regained form, his issue stems from pitch location. His chase rate is down more than 10% versus his prior two full seasons, and FanGraphs’ location+ metric is also down about 10%. I like the Angels, who own MLB’s ninth lowest chase rate, to drive up his pitch count today. The Halos see the ninth most pitches per plate appearance, and are hitting well: 121 wRC+ and a .785 OPS over the last two weeks versus righties.
FanDuel. After a run of very difficult matchups to start this season, Matt Boyd has cleared this strikeout total in each of his last four appearances. Overall, he’s accrued 53 punch outs in 51.1 innings - and finally fully healthy this season, he’s pitching deep into ballgames. I like the matchup today, as the Reds struggle against left handed pitching, with a 24.6% strikeout rate and only a .623 OPS (both are ninth worst in baseball).
DraftKings. Tanner Bibee has yet to clear this strikeout total in any of his nine starts. Yet, we’re gifted a line of 5.5 in what I see as a below average matchup for the Guardians starter. Bibee is not generating the swinging strikes this season (15th percentile - 8.1% versus 12.2% last season), And this is a Tigers team that doesn’t allow many called strikes (5th fewest as a team). Bibee also does not have a strong strikeout history against this lineup - it’s an easy fade for me.
FanDuel. Rangers Suarez has cleared this line in two of his three starts this season. After missing the beginning of the season to injury, he’s worked up to a full pitch count, throwing 98 in his last outing. He’ll now face the Rockies who have baseball’s highest strikeout rate against lefties (28.8% - and 28% at home). Targeting a pitcher over at Coors can be scary, but Suarez is a groundball merchant, who should be able to limit the damage from the Rockies, who own a pitiful .624 OPS at home versus southpaws as is.
DraftKings. Bowden Francis has failed to finish six innings in six of his nine starts. Pitching to a 5.63 ERA (6.03 xERA), Francis has really struggled of late, with an 8.10 ERA. The Padres have been slumping at the plate of late, but facing Francis should serve as a breakout spot. San Diego hit finesse pitchers really well, with a .789 OPS. Francis does not miss bats, nor does he walk anyone, and allows a ton of hard contact (5th percentile). The Jays pen is very well rested, and I doubt Francis has much of a leash the third time through the order, when opponents have a 1.136 OPS against him. Playable down to under 17.5 outs.
FanDuel. Hunter Brown has been electric for the Astros this season. He’s cleared this line in seven of nine starts, including nine strikeouts in five straight outings. Pitching to a 1.43 ERA, his 30.5% called plus swinging strike rate is amongst the elite for a starter. He’ll now face the Rays, who own a 23.7% strikeout rate against righties over the last two weeks (ninth highest), and overall own a 28% K% against power pitchers this season.
FanDuel. Gunnar Hoglund has remained under this line in two of three starts. The one over came against the free swinging Marlins, while the more patient Dodgers and Mariners chased him in the sixth inning. And yes, I’m trusting the Angels offense. The Halos are on a nice run right now, with a 118 wRC+ and .776 OPS over the last week against righties handed pitching. Already one of the more patient teams in baseball, with the eleventh lowest chase rate and twelfth highest pitches per plate appearance, I see sneaky value on them today. Hoglund struggles more against righties, allowing an OBP north of .400 in his AAA and MLB starts combined. The Angels are extremely right-handed heavy, and likely start 6-7 tonight.
Caesar’s. Erick Fedde has failed to clear this strikeout line in seven of his nine starts this season. He’s been pitching to contact all season, with a 23% called plus swinging strike rate (11th lowest of 243 pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched) and a swinging strike rate in the seventh percentile. The Tigers should be able to stave off two-strike counts, as they have the third lowest called plus swinging strike rate as a team.