Brandon Pfaadt has a tough assignment against the Dodgers tonight. …

DraftKings / Caesar’s. Dean Kremer is coming off a strong start against the Royals at home, but he’s struggled in the rest of his starts. He’s failed to reach six innings in six of seven outings, pitching to a 5.73 ERA (5.21 xERA). His underlying metrics are rough as well: a .288 expected batting average is in the fifteenth percentile of all pitchers. And he’s been brutal on the road with an 8.17 ERA. To top it off, opponents are hitting 16/38 with three home runs, the third time through the order (1.173 OPS). The Twins are a patient team (4.0 pitches per plate appearance is second most), and are hitting well of late (.736 OPS and 111 wRC+ versus righties the last two weeks).

FanDuel at -102. There’s enough variables here for me to take the under on Sanchez’s outs prop. He did make it out of his last start unscathed, but I doubt they push him much past 90 pitches with the arm soreness issue lingering. The bullpen is fresh, and the Rays are one of the more patient teams in baseball (9th most pitches per plate appearance and the 8th lowest chase rate). Sanchez has historically been significantly less effective and efficient on the road, and this is a stadium in which he’s never pitched a regular game.

DraftKings. Kodai Senga has only cleared this line in three of his six starts, but does have four strikeouts in each start. After a slow ramp up, he’s now working under no pitch limitations. He’ll get the Diamondbacks again (6 strikeouts in his last outing) - Arizona strikes out more against righties (22.3% over the last two weeks is the tenth highest mark in baseball). And with Arizona likely starting 6-7 left handed hitters, Senga should be able to unleash his forkball at will. Thirteen of the last 15 non-opener righties have cleared this line against the D-Backs. I’d bet this up to -150.

DraftKings. Sonny Gray has cleared this line in four of his six fully stretched out starts. One miss was in his last outing against the potent Mets lineup, while the other was due to being pulled after 71 pitches on a freezing day against these Pirates. Gray pitched very well in that start, only allowing three hits and one run over five innings, and has traditionally had success against this Pirates lineup. Pittsburgh has had plenty of offensive woes this season - they’re at an 82 wRC+ and .638 OPS against righties over the last 2 weeks.

DraftKings. David Peterson has failed to clear this line in four of his six starts. He hasn’t earned his manager’s trust the third time through the batting order, having allowed an .869 OPS and being pulled at less than 90 pitches the last two outings. This includes his last start against the Diamondbacks, who were patient with Peterson, averaging 4.2 pitches per plate appearance. Now at home, I’ll back the Diamondbacks offense to break through. I’d bet this down to under 16.5 outs.

DraftKings. Chris Sale started the season slow, but has acquitted himself well over his last two starts. Overall, he’s cleared this line in four pf his seven starts, including three of the last four. His underlying metrics have been there this season, with a 30% called plus swinging strike rate, and an xERA of 3.31 - I’m not put off by his 4.84 ERA. And he gets a Reds lineup that’s league average producing against lefties. I’d bet this up to -145.

Caesar’s. Bowden Francis has really struggled this season. Pitching to a 5.28 ERA and a 7.45 expected ERA, his 51% hard hit rate sits in the fifth percentile. He’s remained under this line in four of six starts this season, with lefties registering a 1.016 OPS against him. The Guardians will stack lefties today, likely starting six to seven. Even with Joseph Ramirez likely sitting, I don’t see Francis with a lot of leeway the third time through the batting order. The bullpen is fresh and the Blue Jays have an off day tomorrow.

FanDuel (1.2 betting units for me). Garrett Crochet has cleared this strikeout line in four of his seven starts this season, with two of those misses against the Blue Jays, who have the sixth lowest strikeout rate against lefties. Today’s matchup, the Twins, have the third highest strikeout rate against lefties thus far (26.9%), with a measly .613 OPS against southpaws. There are some minor weather concerns, but it does look like we should avoid any in-game delays.

FanDuel at -132. Kyle Hendricks has only cleared this line in one of his five starts (his first of the season). He’s struggled overall (6.65 ERA and a 5.14 xERA, and a 12.2% walk rate). And even in the games where Hendricks has pitched well, he’s susceptible to an early hook. The Tigers are one of the more patient teams, seeing the seventh most pitches per plate appearance (3.95). I expect patient at bats from a team that’s swinging the bat well (.820 OPS over the last seven days against righties).

DraftKings. Kris Bubic only managed four strikeouts in his last start against Houston, but otherwise, he’s managed at least five strikeouts in each of his other six starts. With four pitches all capable of drawing swings and misses, Bubic’s whiff rate sits in the 73rd percentile, and his called+swinging strike rate is in the 89th percentile amongst pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched. The Orioles continue to be a strikeout friendly target against left handed pitching, with a 27% strikeout rate and a league worst .492 OPS.

Caesar’s. Hunter Brown is on fire to start the season, pitching to a 1.22 ERA. He’s registered 40 strikeouts in 37 innings (over in 4/6 starts), and he’s coming off consecutive 9-strikeout performances in very tough matchups (TOR and KC, both in the bottom five of strikeout rate against righties). The White Sox have been pluckier lately, but still at 24.3% K% over the last over the last two weeks versus righties.

DraftKings. Antonio Senzatela has allowed at least six hits in each of his six starts this season, including at least nine hits allowed in each of his three starts away from Coors Field (28 hits allowed in just 14 away innings). The Giants are hitting .247 at home against righties this season, but with Senzatela running a .347 xBA (first percentile), I have San Francisco notching 6 hits within 21 batters faced.

DraftKings. Jesus Luzardo has a tough matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who own baseball’s lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching (14%). The likes of Chris Sale, Carlos Rodon, Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele all failed to clear this line against the pesky Diamondbacks. Luzardo has cooled a bit after hit hot start, staying under this line in two of his last three starts.

FanDuel. Matthew Boyd has only cleared this line in one of his five starts this season, but it’s unfair to judge him on that. He’s faced the Dodgers twice, the Padres twice and the Diamondbacks once - all three teams are amongst the seven toughest lineups to strikeout versus lefties. Boyd finally gets a good spot today against the Pirates, who own the ninth highest strikeout rate against lefties, and a measly 66 wRC+. The underlying metrics are there - I see this as a breakout game for Boyd on the strikeout front.