The Under is 12-6 when the White Sox have 1-2 days without travel...

Seattle is 12-6 at home this season...

I went back and forth about whether to bet on George Springer or Vlad Guerrero Jr. to hit a HR yesterday. I chose Vlad Jr., and of course, Springer homered in his first at-bat. Today, I’m going with Springer, so be prepared for Vladdy to homer. Springer is excelling against left-handed pitchers this season with a 1.262 OPS and all 4 of his HRs coming against lefties. Although Springer doesn’t have a HR in his career against Kikuchi, he is 7/16 (.438) against him, indicating he sees the ball well out of Kikuchi’s hand. We set the line at +400 for Springer to homer, so you are getting strong value at +600 on DraftKings.

Getting a line under -200 in a first-place vs. last-place matchup offers value, even though they are in different divisions. Both teams have had two days off, so they should be fresh before a double-header tomorrow. Colorado is just 6-28 this season, while Detroit is off to a 22-13 start. This game features two top young pitching prospects (Jackson Jobe vs. Chase Dollander). I favor Jobe, as the Tigers are 5-0 when he starts, compared to the Rockies being 2-3 when Dollander starts. Dollander is coming off his best start, but he needs to show more consistency. We would set the line at -215, with the Tigers winning in over 68% of simulations.

While Francisco Lindor is a switch-hitter, most of his power this season has come when batting from the left side against right-handed pitchers (RHPs). He has hit 6 of his 7 home runs this season against RHPs. In 30 games against right-handed starting pitchers, Lindor has a .880 OPS. In 6 games against left-handed starters, his OPS drops to .522. Merrill Kelly doesn’t give up many home runs, but he still has a 1.2 HR/9 rate and is susceptible to giving up 1 or 2 if he misses his spots. Lindor is just 2/10 in his career against Kelly, but having faced him 10 times before should help. We set the line at +370 for Lindor to hit a HR.

Bryan Woo allowed just 1 hit in 6 innings in his last start and 3 hits in 6 innings the start before that, totaling 4 hits in his last 12 innings. The A’s have been solid against RHPs this season, but they managed just 4 hits against Emerson Hancock yesterday, and Woo is currently a better pitcher. Woo has been excellent against the Athletics, limiting them to a .467 OPS in 7 games, with a 6-0 record and a 0.72 ERA. Despite the A’s improvement, Woo should have a lot of confidence facing them.

Our model isn’t fully convinced by the A’s strong 20-17 start, as they have played an easier schedule, including series against the White Sox, Marlins, and Rockies. Their expected record is actually several games below .500. The Mariners have played a tougher schedule and exceeded expectations, moving into the top-5 in our power rankings. The A’s are just 7-10 in Sacramento, while the Mariners have a 9-8 road record. Gunnar Hoglund was impressive in his first MLB start, but we expect some regression as he faces a tougher team. Bryan Woo is 6-0 with a sub-1.00 ERA against the A’s, making the Mariners ML a good value. We would set this line closer to -180.

Kyle Manzardo thrives during day games, boasting a 1.044 OPS and 6 HRs in 15 day games compared to a .594 OPS and 2 HRs in 17 night games. Mike Soroka, once one of the best young pitchers, missed over 2 years with injuries and hasn’t been the same since. Before his injuries, Soroka had a 0.6 HR/9 rate, but that number has climbed to 1.8 HR/9 post-injuries. Soroka has just one start this season and faced a left-handed batter 11 times without recording a strikeout. I like this matchup against Soroka, especially in a day game where Manzardo has excelled this season.

This play offers good value as the line is set as high as -165 on other books. Emerson Hancock has recorded 18 outs in his last two starts, but he wasn't particularly dominant in those outings. He allowed 11 baserunners in his last start despite going 6 innings. The A's, hitting .252 as a team against right-handed pitchers, offer a tough matchup with many of their best hitters batting from the left side. Historically, Hancock has gone over 17.5 outs in just 6 of 19 starts, and we have him going just 5 IP in our model.

Vlad Guerrero has seen the ball well against Tyler Anderson, going 6-for-11 in his career against him. After a slow start, he has recorded an RBI in 5 of his last 9 games. With the total set at 9 in this game, it seems likely that Guerrero will have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. The line for Guerrero to record an RBI at +175 has strong value, especially since other books have it priced as low as +145. We would set the line at around +125.

Vlad Guerrero Jr. is starting to heat up, hitting 3 of his 4 home runs in the last 9 games. Tyler Anderson has been effective this season, allowing just 10 earned runs, but he has given up 6 home runs. Anderson is known for being a pitch-to-contact pitcher, prone to occasional loud contact. Vlad Jr. has 6 hits in 11 at-bats against Anderson, and while he doesn't have a home run off him yet, it's clear he sees the ball well from the left-handed pitcher. Based on this matchup, we set the line at +350 for Guerrero to hit a home run today. With the value at +450, it's worth a bet.

Fernando Tatis Jr.'s bat has cooled off a bit recently, but he has a great opportunity today. He is hitting .371 with all 8 of his home runs this season coming against right-handed pitchers, despite being a right-handed batter himself. He’s facing Clarke Schmidt, who is dealing with an injury, and ranks in just the 6th percentile for fastball run value according to Baseball Savant. Tatis has historically excelled against fastballs, so if he gets into fastball counts, he’s in a prime position to go yard. We set the line at +280 for Tatis Jr. to hit a home run today, so at +330, there's solid value here.

Kyle Schwarber is a player almost always going to have model value to hit a HR when at +300 or higher against a RHP. Though he’s been dominant against left-handed pitchers this season, he still maintains a solid .870 OPS against righties in his career. Today he faces Drew Rasmussen, who’s good at preventing home runs and against left-handed bats, but he is pitching in a spring training park which favors hitters. Given the environment, Schwarber could be in a prime spot for a home run. We’ve set the line at +270 for Schwarber to hit a home run.

Jarren Duran has owned José Berríos in his career, going 9-for-18 with a staggering 8 extra-base hits (3 HRs and 5 doubles). As the leadoff hitter, any early XBH puts him in immediate scoring position, especially with Rafael Devers and Alex Bregman swinging hot bats behind him. This matchup gives Duran a great opportunity to cross the plate, and our model sets the fair value line at -140.

You’re getting strong value here, as the same play is priced at -145 on BetMGM and DraftKings. Brice Turang missed yesterday’s game with an illness, but if he’s in the lineup, he’s likely leading off against a right-hander. Turang is batting .343 vs. RHPs this season, and he’s followed by Yelich (.888 OPS vs. RHP) and Jackson Chourio, who is starting to heat up. Turang has shown a pattern of scoring in games following a scoreless outing, having done so in his last five chances.