Pete Alonso has hit a HR in two of his last three games...

The Giants have gone Under in 9 of their last 10 games...

Value on Tyler Stephenson Wednesday...

The Rockies were 0-6 in Tanner Gordon's road starts last season...

Ketel Marte has been on a tear this month, launching 8 home runs in just 22 games during May. His performance at home has been especially impressive, boasting a 1.023 OPS, and he's been even better against right-handed pitchers, with a 1.089 OPS and 7 of those 8 homers coming against them. Today, he faces Mike Burrows, who is making only his second career start and has already surrendered 3 home runs in just 8.1 innings pitched. FanDuel is offering Marte at +360, which stands out as strong value compared to other sportsbooks pricing him closer to +300. Based on our projections, we set Marte's line at +270, making this a solid value play.

Rafael Devers has cooled off slightly over the last three games, but his overall performance in May remains elite. He's hitting .375 with 7 home runs and a 1.156 OPS this month. Today, he faces Aaron Civale, who is making just his second start since returning from the injured list. Civale has already allowed 4 home runs in just 2 starts this season, suggesting some rust. Although Devers is only 2-for-8 in his career against Civale, that prior familiarity could work in his favor as he knows Civale's arsenal. We set Devers' home run line at +350, so +390 presents a solid value.

While Jose Ramirez hasn't homered in his last 9 games, he's currently riding a 19-game hitting streak and is hitting a scorching .372 in May with a 1.048 OPS. The long odds at +560 are largely due to his matchup against Dustin May, a pitcher known for limiting home runs. However, May has shown some vulnerability on the road, giving up 4 home runs in 4 road starts this season. With hitter-friendly weather expected in Cleveland, this could be a prime opportunity for Ramirez to break his home run drought. We would price this closer to +400, so the +560 line offers excellent value.

Despite going hitless yesterday, Cody Bellinger has been red-hot in May, hitting .333 for the month. He draws a favorable matchup today against Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz, who has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters. Lefties are batting .327 against him and have accounted for 8 of the 9 home runs he's allowed this season. While Bellinger has fared better against lefties, his hot hitting as of late, and the matchup against a struggling righty, make this a great spot for him. We set the line at +380, so there's solid value in the +475 number being offered.

Oneil Cruz is on an absolute tear right now. Just yesterday, he set a new record with the hardest-hit home run ever recorded at a blistering 122.9 mph. Over his last three games, Cruz has launched three home runs and added a triple. He's been especially dominant against right-handed pitchers, boasting a .995 OPS and hitting 10 of his 11 home runs against them. Today, he faces Ryne Nelson, who has been relatively stingy with home runs but is more vulnerable at home throughout his career, where opponents are hitting .294 against him compared to .234 on the road. Given Cruz's recent hot hitting, our model sees value at +340, as we would set the line at +300.

Junior Caminero is another hot bat we're backing today. He rewarded us with a home run on Saturday, and we're riding the momentum. Caminero has been significantly better at home, hitting .301 compared to just .129 on the road. He also performs better against right-handed pitching, with a .266 average versus .193 against lefties. He'll face Chris Paddack, who has a career HR/9 rate of 1.4 but has only allowed one homer in his last four starts. Our model anticipates some regression from Paddack, making Caminero a strong value at +450, especially since we set the line at +365.

Juan Soto has been off to a slow start with his new team, but he is such a good hitter that his struggles won't last. Despite his low batting average against right-handed pitchers (.217), he's hit seven of his eight home runs this season off righties. Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin has a 1.8 HR/9 rate since 2023 and gave up two home runs in the first inning of his last outing. Soto is a solid 4-for-12 career line against Gonsolin, and seeing a pitcher that he has familiarity with should help. Our model prices Soto's home run prop at +350, so there's value at +400.

Junior Caminero is in a favorable spot today, playing at home where he's shown significantly better power. He's also been more productive against right-handed pitching, which he'll face again today. Of his eight home runs this season, six have come against righties and seven have been hit at Steinbrenner Field, the Rays' temporary home park. Blue Jays starter José Berríos has a history of giving up home runs, and after a homer-free outing in his last start, some regression is expected. Our model sets Caminero's HR line at +375, making +400 a solid value play.

Fernando Tatis has been in a bit of a slump recently, going just 7-for-40 over his last 10 games. However, when he does make contact, he's been hitting the ball with authority—five of those seven hits have gone for extra bases, including three home runs and two doubles. Braves starter Grant Holmes has already surrendered 10 home runs this season and has struggled more against right-handed hitters, despite being a righty himself. With hitter-friendly weather conditions in Atlanta, our model sees value in Tatis going deep today, setting his home run line at +275.

Cody Bellinger is red-hot at the plate and now gets the benefit of hitting in the hitter-friendly environment of Coors Field. He's batting .333 with a 1.003 OPS in May and has launched 3 home runs in his last 5 games, despite going hitless in his most recent outing. He'll face Rockies starter Tanner Gordon, who has struggled in his limited MLB experience, surrendering 10 home runs in just 40.2 innings. With Bellinger's recent success and the favorable conditions, the +330 line offers solid value according to our model.

Pete Alonso is in the midst of a home run drought, having gone 14 games without one, which suggests he's due. Although he's just 1-for-7 in his career against Clayton Kershaw, those numbers may not be very telling given Kershaw's recent injury history. In his first start back, Kershaw gave up 5 earned runs in just 4 innings against an Angels team he's typically dominated. Alonso, despite cooling off from his hot start, still boasts a .292 batting average and a .931 OPS this season. We set the line at +290 for Alonso to hit a home run, so the +320 offered by FanDuel presents a solid opportunity.