The final regular season game is poised to carry the highest total. That alone makes it a near-automatic Under play, particularly when one team (Minnesota) holds the fourth fewest points per game figure at 18.8. The first meeting did end with 60 points on the board, but the scoring included a rare scoop-and-score. A game with significant stakes often results in some cautious play-calling and heightened emphasis on defense. Though both coaches are disinclined to tighten the reins, at least some clock-burning is likely late if one side leads by two-plus scores.

If QB Tua Tagovailoa is cleared to go after he sat out Sunday with an injury, this line is shooting up. Miami remains in the playoff chase, though it is counting on an unlikely Denver loss to Kansas City to stay eligible. The games will be played concurrently, so the Dolphins will take the field bent on winning since the Broncos' outcome won't be immediately clear. Even if backup Tyler Huntley takes the snaps, Miami should be fine. Huntley completed 22 of 26 passes against Cleveland on Sunday. Most of all, the Jets appear demoralized, having been hammered by Buffalo, and this is likely QB Aaron Rodgers' swan song in New York.

Rams coach Sean McVay was not kidding that he did not care about winning this game by declaring early this week that QB Matthew Stafford would be held out. Never mind that a win would give the NFC West champions a more favorable matchup in the playoffs. The Rams have also announced their intention to sit WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, along with RB Kyren Williams and two starting O-linemen. QB Geno Smith will not be lacking in incentive. He can secure up to $6 million in bonuses with a strong performance. The ‘Hawks can close out a stellar straight-up road record of 7-1, and the task just got easier with the opponent’s stated approach.

The Chargers had to wait until Saturday for an extra jolt of motivation. With Pittsburgh stumbling against Cincinnati, a victory over the Raiders would lock up the fifth seed and a desirable wild-card matchup versus the Texans, who scare nobody. All season long, the Chargers have taken care of lesser foes. They have won seven of their last 10 outright, with losses to Baltimore, Kansas City and Tampa Bay. The Raiders have perked up, winning their last two games. Still, Las Vegas can claim only one victory all year against a foe with a plus-.500 record. This spread expectedly jumped after the Bengals-Steelers outcome but remains reasonable for Chargers backers.

Four seasons ago, Kansas City had locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC West when it played host to Las Vegas. Patrick Mahomes and fellow Chiefs standouts stayed on the sideline and watched the Raiders' 38-21 win. A similar scenario applies here. The difference is, while the Raiders had been eliminated, Denver must win to reach the playoffs. The Broncos will go all-out, seeking to build an insurmountable lead -- especially after frittering away Saturday's game at Cincinnati. The 8.5-point spot might sound steep, but Denver should come out gangbusters against an assortment of K.C. backups.

The 49ers have endured an epidemic of injuries, capped by QB Brock Purdy's bum elbow suffered on Monday night that ends his season. The defense was lacerated by Detroit, and the offense is missing a roll call of contributors. San Fran is staggering to the finish line in a short week. The Cardinals have been up-and-down -- mostly down in recent weeks -- but should be motivated to complete a season sweep of a division foe that historically dominates them. 'Zona scored a one-point win in the Bay Area in Week Six.

New Orleans' last five games have resulted in 35, 25, 39, 34 and 35 points. Most of the blame falls on the team’s offense, which has been putrid. With the usual list of injured suspects sitting out, there's no reason to think it will find relief. The concern is Tampa Bay’s imposing offense and the need to win for a division title. Given a clear superiority in this matchup, the Buccaneers could - and should - lean on their rushing attack, shorten the game and coast home to preserve their players for a wild-card contest next weekend.

The Packers produced at least 30 points in six consecutive games until last weekend, when it registered “only” 25 against Minnesota’s formidable defense. Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur vows to deploy his regulars, perhaps in part to extend his straight-up record against Chicago to 11-0. The Bears’ languid offense must contribute to the Over, which is dicey given that the team is 6-1 on the Under away from home. If Green Bay has another 30-point outing, Chicago essentially needs only reach 11 to deliver an Over. It will be very cold, but both teams are acclimated to such weather and should not be unduly impacted.

This line opened at 17.5, which would have made it the largest figure of the season. Yet it has continued to rise to an outrageous level. As one-sided as the matchup appears, no such spread is valid unless the underdog’s defense is atrocious. Cleveland’s is decent. Here are the total points scored in the Browns’ last four games: 41, 38, 30 and 23. The Browns are being vague about their QB plans. Whoever is behind center won’t matter. Their points ceiling is head-scraping low, so it will be up to the D to deliver a cover. NFL ‘dogs by at least 13.5 points are 3-3 ATS this season. One more thing: The teams' first meeting was won by Cleveland.

For scores to hit a half-hundred, both teams must contribute. Can the 49ers do their share? In five of the past six games, they have registered 17, 10, 10, 6 and 17 points. The O-line has been stripped bare, with five blockers on injured reserve and two others questionable for this game. RB Isaac Guerendo has recovered, but can he find any holes? As for Detroit, with this outcome meaningless for playoff position, coach Dan Campbell could yank some playmakers well before the final gun. Other coaches might sit them from the get-go. That is not the Campbell Way, but it makes no sense to deploy them for 60 minutes with a short week ahead.

As impressive as QB Michael Penix Jr. was in his Atlanta debut last Sunday, let's be real. The game unfolded at home against the Giants. His follow-up is away in the Sunday night spotlight against a much superior opponent. The Commanders entered the weekend allowing the fourth fewest passing yards. Their QB, rookie Jayden Daniels, has performed like a grizzled veteran. The Falcons demoted Kirk Cousins because the offense was in quicksand, and a win over lowly New York in the A-T-L does not suggest all woes have been washed away. A spread that separates these teams by a field goal, with the young QB making his road debut, seems insufficient.

NFL totals do not get much lower than here. In this instance, it's valid. The QB matchup is likely Tyler Huntley (Miami) versus Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Cleveland). In his three appearances this season, the Dolphins have scored 12, 15 and 10 points. The Browns have tallied 14, seven and six in its last three outings, with Thompson-Robinson starting in the latest. Neither owns the credentials to become a regular NFL starter. The depleted Browns are minus TE David Njoku, WR Cedric Tillman and RB Nick Chubb. The predicted weather -- rain and high winds -- raises the hurdle even higher for these harried offenses.

Carolina enters as the hotter (in ATS terms) and healthier team. The Panthers are on a 6-1 roll for covers, along with six wins in a row as underdogs. Tampa Bay is ultra-thin at WR, with Sterling Shepard out, and safety, with All-Pro Antonio Wingfield Jr. a scratch. Both positions already were shorn of standouts. Earlier this month, the Bucs needed a last-second field goal to extend the game into overtime, when they beat Carolina. The Panthers unmistakably have improved since then.

In a late-season meeting of teams long erased from the list of playoff contenders, little things matter. In this case, Las Vegas had a travel day from hell Saturday, with travel delays hours by weather and plane malfunction. Arriving past midnight is hardly conducive to an optimum performance with a noontime (local) kickoff. The Raiders do not score much with Aidan O'Connell at QB. They have gone 10-5 on Unders when he starts, including the last four. The Saints, even with backups at QB and RB, need not generate many points for a mini-upset.

Tony Pollard has gained nearly five times as much rushing yardage as Tennessee's next most productive RB. In a matchup of long-eliminated teams from the playoffs, that Pollard will sit out with an illness is significant. He has led his team in ground yards in all but one game. The Titans have been held in the teens during regulation for 11 of their 16 games. Jacksonville does not win much straight-up but has covered in six of the past nine games. This is Mac Jones' seventh start since stepping in for Trevor Lawrence and is growing accustomed to the gig.