Customarily, the side with the superior defense, rushing attack and offensive line prevails. K.C. might have the magical QB, but the Eagles require less of Jalen Hurts, allowing him to thrive without as many highlight-reel plays as counterpart Patrick Mahomes compiles. The two-week break is allowing Hurts to recover from various ailments, and RB par excellence Saquon Barkley benefits from a light workload in the NFC Championship game. Underdogs have won six of the last 10 Super Bowls outright while covering in 12 of the last 17. The Chiefs, less talented than in their prior two title years, have cut it close with a dozen one-score wins this season. Their extended good fortune is about to run dry.

The Chiefs' favoritism seems based on the belief that they will draw on their experience in recent playoff excellence to beat Buffalo. Most of the evidence suggest that this K.C. team is inferior to the past two. Eleven of 15 wins this season were secured by one score, and a few appeared a product of luck. It outgained opponents by a paltry eight yards per game. The Bills were much better at running the ball, which is paramount in freezing weather. They stand 12-7 ATS, with the highlight a nine-point win over the Chiefs. As magical as QB Patrick Mahomes can be, Josh Allen is a worthy peer. The Bills have the better team and are receiving points. 'Nuff said.

Jayden Daniels has hurdled this number in five consecutive games, albeit one in overtime. Philly held him to 191 in their first meeting, but the ridiculously gifted rookie slapped the Eagles around with 258 in the sequel. He has attempted 30-plus passes in his last 10 games, not counting the one in which he made a cameo appearance. There is no reason to think the 'Dores will become ground-oriented here. This total is a few yards lower than what other sportsbooks have posted.

Home-field advantage around the league has been diminished, but how can we discount the Bills’ excellence in Buffalo? They are 9-0 this season, with four margins in the 20s and another in the 30s. Yet they are on the receiving end here. One factor in Baltimore’s favoritism is its 35-10 spanking of Buffalo in Week Four when RB Derrick Henry ran wild. Two key Bills LBs who sat out are back, and Buffalo’s defense yielded the 12th fewest yards per game in the regular season despite Baltimore’s banner day. Ravens WR Zay Flowers, who bypassed the wild-card game with an injury, is unlikely to return. While both teams breezed to first-round wins, Buffalo’s came against the rising Broncos whereas Baltimore’s occurred against the sinking Steelers.

The Rams have ridden their defense to the second round of the playoffs. In the past four games that involved the starters, L.A. has allowed a total of 33 points, with no foe reaching double figures. The Eagles' defense has been dominant all season. It has no peer in the total and pass defense categories. No team runs the ball as much as Philly, which often leads to games with fewer-than-usual snaps. This number is right in the middle of the standard totals window, and it seems high with teams whose defenses stand a cut above the offenses.

Kansas City has played 18 postseason games with Patrick Mahomes at QB. In half of those, the Chiefs scored in the 30s (six times), 40s (twice) and 50s (once). Two more resulted in the high 20s, two additional in the mid-20s. As spotty as the offense has been this season, playoff-time K.C. customarily has little trouble scoring. Houston must contribute to an Over. With TB Joe Mixon likely to play after being iffy all week, the Texans are capable of doing their part. K Ka'imi Fairbairn can pitch in; his 39 field goals were fourth most in the regular season.

Sunday’s first game offered a reminder of the challenges facing rookie quarterbacks in road playoff games. Those teams fell to 5-18 straight-up with Denver’s loss at Buffalo as Bo Nix was average after the Broncos’ initial possession. Although Jayden Daniels is no typical first-year QB, the numbers don’t lie. For the Commanders, the bigger concern is their defense. It ranks 30th against the run, and Tampa Bay RB Bucky Irving and the rest of the ground attack are on a tear. It also has been sketchy against elite receivers, and there are few better than Mike Evans. Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield is 2-1 outright in the postseason, which inspires confidence against the untested Daniels.

Though Baltimore routed them a few weeks ago, the Steelers took the first round this season and have won eight of the last 10 meetings outright. Pittsburgh is mired in a four-game losing streak, but its conquerors are an impressive lot — Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals. The belief here is that coach Mike Tomlin can dig them out of the slump, draw on his successful game-planning against Lamar Jackson and deliver a competitive game. Pittsburgh is 10-2 straight-up in the last dozen playoff games versus division foes, a testament to its preparation for a third face-off in the same season. The spread for the latest matchup was just 7.5, so this figure represents a leap, especially if standout Ravens WR Zay Flowers is out.

The superior team in this matchup is indisputable. Los Angeles enters with a +101 points differential, which is 101 better than Houston’s. The Chargers yielded a league-low 301 points. Its offense is on fire, having averaged 36 ppg over the past three weeks. ATS? L.A. is 12-5, Houston around .500. The visitors have won three in a row and five of six outright. The Texans dropped their last two games that mattered, scoring a combined 21 points. Weather is no factor for the visitors from SoCal, with the stadium enclosed if necessary. Home-field advantage is negligible this season, with away teams winning at a 47 percent clip. This is L.A.’s third consecutive road game. However, last Sunday’s involved a quick hop to nearby Las Vegas.

The final regular season game is poised to carry the highest total. That alone makes it a near-automatic Under play, particularly when one team (Minnesota) holds the fourth fewest points per game figure at 18.8. The first meeting did end with 60 points on the board, but the scoring included a rare scoop-and-score. A game with significant stakes often results in some cautious play-calling and heightened emphasis on defense. Though both coaches are disinclined to tighten the reins, at least some clock-burning is likely late if one side leads by two-plus scores.

If QB Tua Tagovailoa is cleared to go after he sat out Sunday with an injury, this line is shooting up. Miami remains in the playoff chase, though it is counting on an unlikely Denver loss to Kansas City to stay eligible. The games will be played concurrently, so the Dolphins will take the field bent on winning since the Broncos' outcome won't be immediately clear. Even if backup Tyler Huntley takes the snaps, Miami should be fine. Huntley completed 22 of 26 passes against Cleveland on Sunday. Most of all, the Jets appear demoralized, having been hammered by Buffalo, and this is likely QB Aaron Rodgers' swan song in New York.

Rams coach Sean McVay was not kidding that he did not care about winning this game by declaring early this week that QB Matthew Stafford would be held out. Never mind that a win would give the NFC West champions a more favorable matchup in the playoffs. The Rams have also announced their intention to sit WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, along with RB Kyren Williams and two starting O-linemen. QB Geno Smith will not be lacking in incentive. He can secure up to $6 million in bonuses with a strong performance. The ‘Hawks can close out a stellar straight-up road record of 7-1, and the task just got easier with the opponent’s stated approach.

The Chargers had to wait until Saturday for an extra jolt of motivation. With Pittsburgh stumbling against Cincinnati, a victory over the Raiders would lock up the fifth seed and a desirable wild-card matchup versus the Texans, who scare nobody. All season long, the Chargers have taken care of lesser foes. They have won seven of their last 10 outright, with losses to Baltimore, Kansas City and Tampa Bay. The Raiders have perked up, winning their last two games. Still, Las Vegas can claim only one victory all year against a foe with a plus-.500 record. This spread expectedly jumped after the Bengals-Steelers outcome but remains reasonable for Chargers backers.

Four seasons ago, Kansas City had locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC West when it played host to Las Vegas. Patrick Mahomes and fellow Chiefs standouts stayed on the sideline and watched the Raiders' 38-21 win. A similar scenario applies here. The difference is, while the Raiders had been eliminated, Denver must win to reach the playoffs. The Broncos will go all-out, seeking to build an insurmountable lead -- especially after frittering away Saturday's game at Cincinnati. The 8.5-point spot might sound steep, but Denver should come out gangbusters against an assortment of K.C. backups.

The 49ers have endured an epidemic of injuries, capped by QB Brock Purdy's bum elbow suffered on Monday night that ends his season. The defense was lacerated by Detroit, and the offense is missing a roll call of contributors. San Fran is staggering to the finish line in a short week. The Cardinals have been up-and-down -- mostly down in recent weeks -- but should be motivated to complete a season sweep of a division foe that historically dominates them. 'Zona scored a one-point win in the Bay Area in Week Six.