If Philly's Jahan Dotson gets a target much less a catch, something either went really wrong on Sunday for the Eagles or really, really right and that's why he's in there. In the past six games that have mattered for the Iggles, which excludes Week 18, Dotson has just one game with a catch and three total targets.

Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert has topped this in four straight games and saw eight targets, second most all season, in the NFC title game win over Washington. The Chiefs allowed the most yards to opposing tight ends this season. They did a good job against Buffalo on Sunday, but Houston's Dalton Schultz had 63 yards in the Divisional Round against them and he's no Goedert. While it's a different offense now, Goedert had six catches for 60 yards two years ago in the SB loss to Kansas City.

Wish 22.5 was available as that I would likely play additional units on, but that we get an option still below the magic number of 24 is real nice -- although as you can see a bit juiced. The Eagles have scored fewer than 24 points just once in their past six in a game that mattered and obviously hung 35 on this defense two years ago. They aren't winning, in my opinion, scoring less than 24 and I tend to think they do win so ...

I rather like playing these unusual/seldom-used players/props in the Super Bowl each year. Xavier Worthy isn't seldom-used for the Chiefs as a wideout but will Andy Reid really call two jet sweeps/reverses for the speedster in the same game? Worthy did have two carries vs. Buffalo but has gone under this number in 11 of 18 total games (didn't play Week 18). Two years ago, Reid gave WR Skyy Moore one carry against the Eagles. And I do imagine Worthy gets one, but then it's not a surprise afterward. Some of his multi-carry games also came when KC was short-handed at running back.

Not planning to play any sides this week as want to enjoy the games, but gadzooks this is a crazy number --- the highest in BetMGM history. I thought 116.5 was too high last week against the Rams and actually Saquon Barkley didn't do much ... except for 78- and 62-yard TD runs. That's obviously tongue in cheek but sort of my point here: If Barkley doesn't blast a long one, it's going to be very tough topping this even if he averaged nearly 150 yards in two RS games vs. Washington. The playoffs are usually different (neither TB's Bucky Irving nor Detroit's Jahmyr Gibbs came close to topping this vs. WSH). Our model has Barkley at 120.5 and NumberFire at 113.4.

This might be the biggest number I've ever seen on a running back. Do you know how hard it is to rush for at least 117 yards in a playoff game? It has been done only four times in Eagles history. Granted, one was by NFL rushing champion Saquon Barkley with 119 last week vs. Green Bay, but this number is still crazy high. I expect the Rams to sell out and stack the box after Barkley gouged them for 255 in the regular season and make Jalen Hurts win through the air. Our model has Barkley at 109.5.

Older age is weird. As long as Matlock is on, I am happy. Kidding, not that old but I have to pump our CBS shows -- the reboot actually is pretty solid, but I've always like Kathy Bates since she knocked whatever ankle bones in Misery. Poor James Caan. Shot multiple times in the Godfather and then Misery. So barring the Lions in the SB, I'm gonna cash out on the NFL season after this. Been nice year with favorites. I just don't see the Rams winning on the East Coast on a short week in potentially wintry weather.

I totally understand this, but 33 points is a lot to score in a playoff game when you are simply trying to win and advance -- and I'm assuming the Commanders will try and chew clock wherever possible when they have the ball to keep that No. 1 Detroit offense on the bench. While this Lions O was better than last year's, the 2023 Lions scored 24 and 31 points in their two playoff games at Ford Field. Playoff games are usually differently paced -- only two teams got to 30 points on Wild Card Weekend and none past 32. Would I go any lower than this number? Probably not, and our model has Detroit right at 33 points.

I'm not sure how fully healthy David Montgomery is, but I am darn sure that Mr. Tough Guy Dan Campbell respects the heck out of Monty for working his way back so quickly from a potentially serious knee injury that he's going to reward him with a TD if at all possible.

If we throw out facing the Lions, who seem to have his number, Sam Darnold has thrown at least two TD passes in all but three games this season. He got to two TDs in the first quarter of the first meeting with the Rams -- they allowed 29 TD passes this year, among the most in the league.

Can't say I trust Sam Darnold much, but he was fabulous this season other than when he faced Detroit for the most part. All things equal, I probably would have taken the Rams at home but the Chargers sure didn't look very focused on Saturday in Houston with all that's going on in Los Angeles. I actually do believe the fan support in Phoenix will be more Vikings than Rams -- Arizona is basically Illinois/Wisconsin/Minnesota West. The Vikes didn't have star TE TJ Hockenson or top linebacker Blake Coleman in the first meeting, their only loss besides the two vs. Detroit. Road favorites are 7-1 ATS in Monday games this season.

I'm not a big believer in the Bucs, but they are a LOT healthier today then they were last Sunday in a must-win struggle over New Orleans with All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield among those back. Washington's Jayden Daniels looks as if he will be special -- not ready to say the Bears made a mistake taking Caleb Williams as I think he will be very good (but perhaps not special) -- but the Commanders are 0-3 ATS in their past three away and rookie QBs are 0-6 SU in road playoff games over the past 10 years after Bo Nix and Denver got blown out this afternoon.

This could be a blowout so perhaps Josh Allen (only six INTs all season) won't be passing much. He has absurd Wild-Card numbers in his career with just one pick. As long as Allen avoids Patrick Surtain's side of the field, I think we are OK barring some Hail Mary-type pick at the end of a half or a tipped ball, etc.

Before Baltimore beat Pittsburgh by 17 in Week 16, there had been nine straight one-score games between these rivals, and I think we will see that again if the Steelers can "slow" the game down and keep Lamar Jackson & Co. off the field. I was pondering holding out for +10.5 but always considered that unlikely and now even the 10s might disappear with the news that Ravens Pro Bowl WR Zay Flowers likely is out. Mike Tomlin is usually money ATS as a dog.

So guess I'm the contrarian today -- I've been called worse already this morning by the missus -- with seven experts thus far all on Chargers -2.5 (and one moneyline play). And I get that. But Los Angeles -- and some guys might not exactly have their minds right with all that's going on back home -- was 8-1 vs. teams .500 or worse this season and 2-5 against playoff teams with both wins vs. Denver. That good Houston defense, which ranks first in the NFL in opposing completion percentage (58.8) and second in picks (19), could give Justin Herbert some trouble. The SL model has Bolts by a point. Works for me.