A look at Dallas Goedert's stats this season hardly seem out of ordinary, except considering that he missed nearly half of the season. In that context, 42 catches from a tight end don't seem all that bad, and worth noting that Goedert has been the number one target of Jalen Hurts across the entirety of these playoffs. Goedert is also capable of the big play, as was that clutch 61-yard completion from Hurts in the last minute to set up the deciding TD in a 12-7 Philly win over the Saints in arguably the Eagles' play of the year. Goedert to at least reach 50 receiving yards seems a good idea. Play Dallas Goedert Over 49.5 yards

The question for us in the Super is if the presence of Saquon Barkley on the Eagles' side simply distorts the field too much in Philly's favor. Barkley's explosive runs have changed the course of several games this season and forced opponents to re-think how to slow the Eagles attack after a year ago mostly taking away the deep balls that Jalen Hurts used so effectively in 2022. IN the end, the Chiefs' uncanny knack to win close games (nine straight wins in one-score games) and the presence of Patrick Mahomes compels us to side with Kansas City as it goes for an unprecedented third straight title in the Super Bowl era. Play Chiefs on ML

This is a different KC than a few years ago when the presence of Tyreek Hill along with Patrick Mahomes made the Chiefs instant big-play threats. Nowadays, it's far more methodical, with Mahomes sometimes shunning his wideouts almost entirely while working instead they Travis Kelce and his own mobility to keep the KC offense on the field...but keeping the clock moving at the same time. The Chiefs continue to trend under (three straight, six of seven, and 11-5 their last 16) as the combination of Mahomes keeping plays and drives alive, while slowly draining the clock, and Steve Spagnuolo's underrated defense creates a powerful parlay for the under wagers. Play Bills-Chiefs Under

What Josh Allen's Bills have yet to do is beat these Chiefs in the playoffs, losing three times since 2020. Buffalo also hasn't won a road playoff game in more than 30 years, since the '93 AFC title game vs. Joe Montana's Kansas City. There was a long postseason drought involved, and Josh Allen is responsible for only three of those losses (none since the 2021 playoffs). Still, we have seen too many escape acts by Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs to underestimate KC, which doesn't need a downfield passing game if Mahomes and Travis Kelce can continue to click and keep drives alive, while Steve Spagnuolo's underrated defense is a main reason the Chiefs won the Supe last February. Play Chiefs on ML

We know the damage Saquon Barkley caused vs. the Commanders this season and that his presence, plus the addition of vet DC Vic Fangio, might make this Philly side more dangerous than the Super Bowl rep from two years ago. But still not sure if Jalen Hurts is actually at 100%, or close to it, on the Philly side, after the knee injury he suffered late in the Division Round vs. the Rams last week, and downfield passing has been a bit spotty for Philly throughout the playoffs. Washington, playing with house money more than any playoff team we recall since the 2019 Titans, rightfully believes it can win this game, as Jayden Daniels continues his magic that's produced seven straight wins. Play Commanders

Temperatures in the teens with possible snow flurries might figure to slow down each of these offense. In any event, we don't foresee a repeat of the September 29 meeting won by the Ravens in a runaway, 35-10, when Derrick Henry blasted for 199 YR, including an 87-yard TD run. Buffalo has been content to rely on its ground game with the underrated James Cook, and Josh Allen's ability to keep drives alive with his legs. The run-heavy Ravens offense also figures to keep the clock and chains moving. If these teams couldn't get beyond 45 in relatively good weather back on September 29, we aren't expecting it to be any easier in expected arctic conditions. Note playoff unders 6-2 into Sunday. Play Ravens-Bills Under

We're not expecting a replay of Philly's 37-20 win at LA in late November, or another 255-yard Saquon Barkley explosion. Sean McVay is likely hellbent to contain Barkley and make Jalen Hurts, who didn't look too sharp back from concussion last week vs. the Pack, beat him instead. Note the Ram defense has allowed single digits in four of five games since the shootout win over the Bills on December 8, and the offense has moved consistently behind Matthew Stafford since mid-October, when WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned to active duty. The Birds benefited from Green Bay mistakes and some sloppy work from Jordan Love last week, but we doubt it will be as east vs. Matthew Stafford and his weapons. Play Rams

Consistent with the narrative that the Commanders are playing with house money, rookie QB Jayden Daniels has looked impervious to pressure all season, and the manner in which Washington (6-0 SU last six) has won some of its games suggests there is a bit of magic about this team. We wonder at times if Dan Campbell is just a bit too gung-ho with his over-aggressive strategies on the Lions side, which cost Detroit in the NFC title game last season. There are still injury concerns on the Lions' defense, and putting the clamps on the Vikings two weeks ago is less impressive considering how Sam Darnold struggled versus the Rams. Washington stayed within this price at Philly & Baltimore, too. Play Commanders.

No question, the first round of the playoffs definitely tilted under (5-1) save Chargers-Texans, which looked most likely to land that way. Note the Chiefs' defense tightened the screws down the stretch, limiting five consecutive foes to a mere 14 ppg. True, Houston was included and the 27-19 KC win on December 21 that was the only Chiefs over result in that stretch. Houston's offense, however, has struggled, with CJ Stroud down targets Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs. The Texans were on an 11-4 under run into the meaningless finale vs. the Titans and odd developments last week vs. the Bolts. Temperatures in the teens suggest this one might look a lot the Chiefs' 26-7 win over Miami last January. Play Texans-Chiefs Under.

This game was moved to Arizona, but the Vikings have other concerns, as the clock might have struck midnight for Sam Darnold last week at Detroit. It was all too reminiscent of the Darnold from previous years with the Jets and Panthers, and raises some concerns in Vikings camp as Darnold prepares for his first playoff start. Remember, the Rams took a Thursday night verdict (30-20) at SoFi over Minnesota back on October 24, as Matthew Stafford outplayed Darnold when tossing 4 TDs. Also note LA won all five December starts with Stafford at the helm, before bowing the the low-key finale vs. Arizona when Jimmy G was at QB as Sean McVay rested most of his regulars. Play Rams (at Glendale, AZ)

Unders have mostly clicked in Wild Card Weekend and no surprise if this one follows the same. These teams did play a 30-20 game in LA's favor at midseason on October 24 at SoFi Stadium, but there is reason to wonder about the Vikings offense tonight after the clock might have struck midnight for Sam Darnold last week at Detroit, when his performance looked eerily similar to some of his past failures with the Jets and Panthers. Meanwhile, before Sean McVay subbed liberally vs. Seattle, Rams December scorelines became extremely low after that shootout win over the Bills on December 8. LA was 8-4 under into the Seahawks game; Minny 10-7 under this season. Play Vikings-Rams Under (at Glendale, Az)

Our favorite angle of the wild card round might be this total in Tampa. Not as much because the first meeting, back on opening day, landed 37-20 in the Bucs' favor. Rather, it's what happened thereafter, especially as the Commanders got up to speed very quickly behind LSU Heisman rookie QB Jayden Daniels, landing over in 10 of their last 15 games. Meanwhile, the Bucs have trended over all season, hitting 30 points most weeks and 11-3 over to close the campaign. Not to be outdone by Daniels, Baker Mayfield enjoyed his most-productive NFL season in the Liam Coen offense, shattering his career-best mark by tossing a whopping 41 TD passes. Play Commanders-Bucs Over

Slight move upward in price after word Jalen Hurts was a go for the Birds, but this won't be easy for Philly. The Pack, despite losing to the Eagles and twice each to the Vikings and Lions, was in almost all of those games, losing narrowly, including the opener in Brazil when the Birds squeezed a 34-29 win. Jordan Love is also a go after a being forced last week from the Chicago game, and remember how Love caught fire in the playoffs last year at Dallas and San Francisco. With Josh Jacobs now available, the Pack has a more-balanced look, and Matt LaFleur believes he has enough targets (such as Jayden Reed) to compensate for the absence of Christian Watson. Play Packers

Before dismissing the Broncos, keep in mind they won a game at Buffalo last November (thanks to a last-second Will Lutz field goal) in a game with Russell Wilson at QB. The Bills had more trouble than realized in recent weeks, though the masses mostly recall the win at Detroit. But Buffalo also lost to the Rams and had a narrow escape vs. lowly New England, plus another loss to the Pats when admittedly resting starters. The Broncos will have to keep Josh Allen in the pocket, but now-healthy CBs Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss give Denver a chance to stick on Bills wideouts. Bo Nix is also executing everything as Sean Payton dictates. Is an upset in the air? Play Broncos

Considering the nature of this series, a spread this high causes a double-take. Ten straight Steelers-Ravens games were decided by seven points or fewer prior to Baltimore's 34-17 win three weeks ago, part of a four-game Steelers skid to end the season. But note that before the late-season slide, Mike Tomlin had covered 14 of his previous 17 as an underdog, rarely getting the sort of points he is in this wild card game. And prior to the late December loss at M&T Bank Stadium, the Steelers had won four straight in this series. Tomlin has also mostly been able to keep Lamar Jackson in check throughout his career, too....has that much changed in this series in a few weeks? Play Steelers