
Alex's Past Picks
David Peterson is in then midst of a career season and has been sensational atop the Mets pitching rotation. Peterson possesses a career best 2.85 ERA and has piled up an impressive record of 9-2. That being said, Peterson is pitching above his head and looks like a major regression candidate. Peterson's expected ERA is 4.75 and his strikeouts are down. He will be facing an elite Phillies lineup for the second time in the last five days and Peterson went 7.2 IP, while surrendering only 4 hits. The Phillies hit opposing lefties as well as any lineup in the league and blanking them twice is a tall order.
This is.a brutal matchup for Javier Assad against an extremely stingy Nationals lineup. I also love the fact that Joey Gallo is not in the lineup. Assad has just 2 strikeouts in 24 at bats against the Nats lineup.
Ryan Pepiot will have his hands full against a Guardians team that has won 9 of their last 14 games. Cleveland's bats have also come to life and possess a .747 OPS in September, good for the 6th highest mark in then league. Pepiot has failed to eclipse this line in 13/22 starts on the season, including 8 of his last 11.
Estes will face an Astros club that is 27-19 since the All-Star break and their bats have been red hot recently as they sport a .741 OPS since September 1st, good for 4th best in the league. Meanwhile Joey Estes has been inconsistent at best, while really struggling away from Oakland owning a 6.66 ERA on the road, compared to 2.74 at home. Estes got lit up in a previous start this season against Houston where he only lasted 3.1 IP.
Strikeouts are likely to be very hard to come by for George Kirby as he gets set to take on the stingiest lineup in the majors when he'll take on the Padres. The Clergy average a minuscule 6.51 strikeouts over 9 IP which is far and away the lowest number in the MLB.
Tough matchup for Eovaldi against arguably the most potent lineup in then baseball. The Diamondbacks have been white hot since the All-Star break and basically rank 1st in nearly every offensive metric over the last 2+ months. I like their chances of getting to Eovaldi and we're getting an excellent price point as well.
Chris Bassitt possesses an ERA of over 5.0 since August 1st while failing to go 7+ strikeouts in 20/28 starts this season. He will face a Mets lineup that is roughly league average in K Rate, however the Mets collectively has strong career numbers against Bassitt with a healthy sample size as well.
Taj Bradley will have his hands full facing a Phillies lineup that is ranked 6th in OPS on the season. The Phillies have been white hot recently and through the month of September are sporting a ridiculous .818 OPS, good for tops in the majors. Bradley has had a solid season, however he has really struggled recently and possesses an ERA of over 10.0 since August 1st.
The Twins are excellent against southpaws, boasting a bottom-10 strikeout rate and top-10 OPS. Reid Detmers is making just his second start since June and struck out 10 in his first start back, inflating this line. Minnesota's projected lineup sports exceptional numbers against Detmers.
Ronel Blanco has arguably been the Astros best starter for the majority of the season, however I would argue he has pitched above expectations and has looked shaky. He has an ERA over 4.0 in the month of August and has also struggled to pitch deep into games, only eclipsing 17.5 in 1/5 August starts. He will face a Royals lineup that has been solid all season, but have been swinging the bats very well lately as they possess a top 5 OPS since August 1st.
Ryan Pepiot has been held under this line in 11/20 starts this season, however he has only pitched into the 7th inning once. Pepiot will face a stiff test in the Padres who rank top 5 in nearly every offensive metric since August 1st. Pepiot has been pitching above his head and I like the Padres chances of finding success against Pepiot who has only thrown 100+ pitches on once this season.
Despite the Diamondbacks missing three of their top sluggers, Arizona keeps chugging along and are red hot. The D-Backs have been particularly tough on opposing southpaws this season and sport the 2nd highest OPS, in addition to wOBA versus lefties. This spells bad news for David Peterson who has pitched very well, although I would argue is pitching above his head. 6 IP has proven to be a tall order for any pitcher against this potent Arizona lineup.
This is a big number for Cortes considering hes failed to eclipse 6.1 IP in seven of his last eight appearances and 17/25 (68%) games this season. Excluding a start against the lifeless White Sox, Cortes has an ERA of over 8.0 over his last five outings, while surrendering a whopping 24 runs on 36 hits. Cortes will have his hands full against a Guardians lineup that is tough on opposing southpaws and possess an OPS of .753. While the juice is less than ideal, I am perplexed as to why this line is 18.5 and I anticipate this closing at 17.5.
Matt Waldron has been struggling on the mound, despite the Padres surging in the win column. Waldron has failed to pitch 6+ innings in four consecutive starts while surrendering at least 5 ER in three of those outings. He will now face a Twins offense that is 6th in OPS. We're getting a nice price and I believe this line should have opened at 16.5.
Erick Fedde has struggled since joining the Cardinals prior to this years trade deadline. Despite Fedde's recent pitching woes, I would argue that he was a serious regression candidate and was playing above his head for the majority of the season with the White Sox and this version we're now seeing, albeit a small sample, is more in line with the pitcher Fedde is. He has has failed to eclipse this line in only 11 of 24 combined starts, however he has gone under in 2/3 since joining St. Louis.