Edward Cabrera has been inconsistent this season and has failed to eclipse this line in 16/23 starts this season. He will face a Mets lineup that has been red hot and ranks 1st in OPS and wOBA over the last 30 days. The Mets also have a lot of at bats versus Cabrera with strong lifetime results.

Blake Snell has pitched very well since returning from a lengthy hiatus on the Injured List. Snell has looked excellent all month and will get a neutral matchup against a normally stingy Arizona lineup. The D-Backs have the 6th highest K Rate over the last 14 days and this line feels discounted coupled with a good price point.

Yusei Kikuchi has some drastic home vs road splits and has not pitched well outside of Los Angeles. He will travel to Texas to face a Rangers lineup that has had success versus him. Kikuchi has failed to eclipse this line in seven consecutive road starts.

Chris Bassitt has pitched significantly better in Toronto this season compared to on the road. He will face a depleted Twins lineup short on talent that has a bottom 5 OPS and wOBA over the last 30 days. I like Bassitt’s chances of getting in six innings.

Ranger Suarez is having a strong season however he has struggled mightily in the month of August. Suarez ERA has ballooned to over 5.6 and he’s failed to throw 7 strikeouts in six of his last eight appearances. He’ll face a Nationals lineup that has struck out a lot this season, however they have good career numbers versus Suarez, in addition to a low K Rate. My model views Suarez as someone who has run above expectations in the K department.

Carlos Rodon has long struggled with consistency however the veteran pitcher is enjoying a strong season. Rodon gets a fantastic matchup against a Rays team that hasn’t been hitting well and you could even argue are the worst offense post trade deadline. Rodon has solid career numbers and I like his chances of going 6+.

Tarik Skubal will be facing a struggling Astros lineup that have been shut out in three of their last four games, including back to back games, while being outscored 22-0. I’m banking on the Astros lineup being motivated coupled with getting a good number on Tarik Skubal who has struggled in August. Skubal can still go 6 strong and have a quality outing while we get home as well.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been arguably the Dodgers best starter this season. He will have his hands full as he travels to Coors Field to face the Rockies in what is certainly the most hitter friendly park in the MLB. We’re getting a great price here as well.

Trevor Rogers has been downright dominant this season for the Orioles, however I believe he’s due for some major regression. He will face a Boston lineup at Fenway that sports the 2nd best wOBA and OPS against opposing southpaws.

Dean Kremer has struggled on the road this season and sports an ERA just under 6.0 on the road. He will face a tough Houston lineup in Texas today. We’re also getting an excellent price on this line.

Aaron Nola is returning to the mound today after lengthy 3 month absence. Nola will face a subpar Nationals lineup, however Nola did not look good early in the season. I also would be surprised if Nola pitches deep in his return and think he’s likely to be on a fairly short leash.

It’s been a tough first season in the desert for E-Rod who has an ERA over 5.0 and has consistently been shake from the mound. He gets a difficult test today at Coors Field which is the most hitter friendly environment in the majors. Couple that with the Rockies bats have been coming alive over the last two weeks and this looks like a good spot to fade Rodriguez.

Matthew Boyd has had an excellent season atop the Chicago Cubs rotation. While Boyd has undoubtedly been great, I do feel he’s pitched slightly above his head/expectations and I consider him a regression candidate. He will have his work cut out for himself against what has been the best lineup in baseball, both recently and all season. The Cubs would also be wise to save Boyd as he has never pitched this many innings.

After looking at Jack Flaherty’s strikeout metrics, it appears to me he is running above expectations with Ks and is a potential regression candidate. He will face a stingy White Sox lineup that sport the 5th lowest K Rate over the last 30 days.

Jose Quintana is having an excellent season for the 1st place Milwaukee Brewers. While Quintana has pitched well, he hasn’t been pitching deep and has been held under this line in 12/17 starts this season. While I would never suggest Pittsburgh is a tough matchup, they have been hitting better over the last two weeks ranking 15th in wOBA.