May well push, or I suppose lose, but I worry about Stuart Skinner's confidence again. The Edmonton netminder was horrible the first two games of the playoffs and benched but then eventually forced back into action due to Calvin Pickard's injury. Skinner played great the last two of the conference semifinals and the first two periods of Game 1 in Dallas before allowing five goals in the third. So we'll go ahead and roll the dice on this great number. Dallas has won seven straight home games.

This is my absolute last time fading Florida on the road in the 2025 playoffs should the Cats bite me again. I just can't imagine with how good Carolina has been on home ice that it would lose again there. This is the season. The Panthers clearly got into the Canes' heads with some physical play in Game 1. Carolina did outshoot, outhit and outdraw (won in faceoff circle) Florida. The Hurricanes are 2-0 in games following losses this postseason, outscoring opponents 9-2 with one shutout.

Toss-up in my mind so only a half unit, but I need a reason not to play a home team -- apparently whenever one is facing Florida suffices -- and I don't have a reason not to here. The Stars have the payback motivation, the better goalie and defense. Edmonton netminder Stuart Skinner was fantastic the final two games of the last round but terrible in the three previous. And if he were to get hurt in mid-game, the Oilers are in big trouble with Calvin Pickard still out injured. Shoot, if I'm the Stars I'm taking runs at Skinner for that reason. Hypothetically of course. Dallas was 28-10-3 at home during the RS and has won six straight playoff games there.

I'm still pretty flabbergasted how bad Florida made the Maple Leafs look on their own ice in Game 7 on Sunday night. So impressive for the Cats but utterly depressing yet again for those of us tired of watching Toronto Game 7 meltdowns. I've had a pretty good NHL season but seems like I don't do well fading the Panthers. The only reason I will in Game 1 is that they have to turn around and play so soon after a long series. Carolina is well-rested and the only team without a home loss this postseason. Frederik Andersen leads all goalies in GAA and SV as well. This series will probably be a slugfest full of 2-1 or 3-2 games.

We take home teams in Game 7, that simple. And we are covered in the event of an overtime loss. I hope to heck this goes to OT simply as a fan ... but then naturally Maple Leafs winning. They haven't been to the conference finals since 2002 when they got there with a Game 7 home win in the semifinals to face Carolina in the ECF. And of course, the Hurricanes are there waiting this year. Toronto forward Matthew Knies (58 regular-season points, +7 rating) was in some question with an injury but will play. This might be a homer pick because I'm not much interested in a Florida-Carolina East Finals matchup.

Get asked often why I generally only play home teams (any sport). I just think guys feel comfortable with the background/rink/field, no travel, etc., and it's easier to stage a comeback at home than away. The Jets' Connor Hellebuyck is the definition of back at home/fade away in these playoffs. He pitched a second home shutout in the series Thursday but is 0-5 with a 5.84 GAA on the road. Winnipeg -- and Hellebuyck -- has lost nine straight playoff road games overall. So, yeah, the Jets are probably due and as someone who wants a Canadian team to finally win the Cup, I'd prefer they win. But I can't ignore the numbers.

We backed a desperate home team last night looking to avoid elimination -- and that didn't pan out. But Vegas certainly played with a lot more intensity, especially on the defensive end. Carolina has dominated this series for the most part and really this play is simply hoping for a possible letdown with the Canes knowing that Game 6 is back in Raleigh if needed. In the regular season, Washington was excellent after a loss -- immediately its 31 defeats, the Caps averaged 3.94 goals per game, roughly half a goal a game over their per game average of 3.49 goals per game throughout the RS. They followed their only first-round loss with a win.

I'm not super-confident on this so will limit to a half unit, but this is a division champion facing elimination in a home game. We love desperate, good teams at home. Vegas did lose the first two there of this series but was 29-9-3 at home during the RS. Good for Edmonton's Stuart Skinner for snapping out of his slump with the very unlikely Game 4 home shutout. But he was blowtorched his two road starts in the first round in LA and then benched. Knights netminder Adin Hill a 1.02 goals-against average and a .957 save percentage in two career elimination games.

Connor Hellebuyck looks broken right now mentally on the road as he was shelled yet again today in the 5-2 loss in Big D after playing horribly in all three games in St. Louis in the first round. Can't imagine the Jets would bench the potential future Hall of Famer for Eric Comrie, but that would be fine by me as the journeyman is not close to the same caliber of player most nights. Stars forward Mikko Rantanen is on a historic playoff heater with three more points in today's win. I see no reason to wait on this Tuesday pick as the line probably only rises. Will play it straight as well instead of tempting my push fate again on -1.

I tend to think the Oilers may need to score 5 tonight to win because Stuart Skinner has to start in net again. Do I trust him much? Nope. So that's why I will play a half unit on this great price instead of ML or even Vegas +1 at -175. Maybe Skinner finds his 2024 playoff form, and he wasn't too bad in the regular season. Or maybe the Oilers win 6-4 on an empty-netter. If we push, we push, but Knights netminder Adin Hill hasn't been all that great in the series himself.

To quote Chandler Bing (actually didn't much care for that show): "Did you seeeeee Connor Hellebuyck in Round 1 on the road?" I'm pretty sure Chandler didn't say that specifically, but you get the drift. It may have been Monica now that I think about it. Whatever. Done thinking about "Friends" for 2025. The sure-fire Vezina winner Hellebuyck was awful in St. Louis in those three first-round games, pulled in each, and while his road splits during the RS were good, they were significantly worse than at home. If one gets by him early, I tend to think his confidence just erodes immediately. That's why I'll go ahead and risk a push at -1 at a really good price instead of Stars ML at -140ish.

Probably pushes but maybe we get lucky on an empty-netter. Much like Florida yesterday, I expect the Canes to win but we weren't offered Panthers -1 or I would have played it on here (and would have pushed). I can't justify Hurricanes at -200 but, again, I think they win and don't want to get bitten on an EN goal and lose Caps +1.5. I'd rather risk the push. The Canes went 31-9-1 at Lenovo Center during the regular season -- tied for the most home wins in the NHL -- and started the postseason 3-0 at home.

Sounds like the Jets will get back top blueliner Josh Morrissey (62 regular-season points, +17) after he was hurt in Game 7 vs. St. Louis and missed the Game 1 home loss to Dallas. Winnipeg can't go to Texas down 2-0 and realistically hope to win the series. The Stars accomplished their mission of stealing home-ice advantage with that victory. And at some point, Mikko Rantanen will stop scoring hat tricks. He's +4000 to get another tonight, which would mark the first time in league history a player had three straight hatties in the postseason.

I took a road team on Wednesday I think for the first time this NHL postseason and paid the price on Florida. Went against my gut, which was Leafs +1. Because in playoff games, I usually like that goal in the pocket to know OT won't gut me -- especially on a home team. Ah well. I'm thrilled personally Toronto won. I do believe Carolina is the better team in this series, RS standings regardless. But we are gonna take the East's top team at home getting +1 in the Caps as we did Game 1 (push unless you played regulation, which is smart). Can't go down 2-0 or it's basically over heading to Raleigh.

Leafs No. 1 goalie Anthony Stolarz had to leave Game 1 with a possible concussion, and he apparently will not play tonight as Joseph Woll is in the starter's crease at the morning skate. Woll is not bad, but he's a downgrade from Stolarz -- at least this season. Woll allowed three goals on 20 shots in relief in the opener as Florida nearly staged a big rally. The Panthers were without top blueliner Aaron Ekblad as he was serving the final game of his suspension and thus will be in tonight's lineup.