
Matt's Picks (1 Live)
The Blues are on a 12-game winning streak. ...
Matt's Past Picks
Slumping Florida seems to be punting on this one with several key guys out: Aleksander Barkov (67 points), Sam Bennett (50 points), Sam Reinhart (78 points) and a few others, as well as the Cats starting backup Vitek Vanecek in net in the second of a B2B. It's desperation time for the Red Wings as they simply have to get two points or their WC hopes are on life support.
Second of a B2B for both on Sunday, but Ottawa didn't have to travel and didn't use its No. 1 goaltender Saturday afternoon in beating Florida to improve to 23-11-2 on home ice. Columbus did use its No. 1 on Saturday night in Toronto and got routed (good for us having Leafs played -1) to fall to 12-22-4 away ... and then obviously a little travel. Since the beginning of March, Sens netminder Linus Ullmark is 10-3-1 in 14 starts with a .904 save percentage. He beat the Jackets on March 29.
While the NBA is essentially unbettable (not an official word but should be along with "schwing!") right now, we have been doing pretty well on the pucks in backing the home teams with motivation against visiting teams with none. Seems simple, I know, but it often isn't that easy. And sure we get "Vancouvered" (also should be a word) every once in a while, but the Flyers have no shot at the playoffs and the Habs absolutely need the two points. It's rather fun/easy betting games where I need not even bother looking up goalie stats, betting trends, etc. This is Motivation 101. Were this game a month ago, I'd play -1. Not now.
We love the Blue Jackets in Columbus, but they are 12-21-4 away and No. 1 netminder Elvis Merzlikins has sprung a leak with 25 goals allowed over his past five -- a whopping seven given up last time out. He probably has been overworked. Toronto players will be well aware that Columbus is trying for the season sweep. The Leafs have been excellent at home at 24-13-1 and have won four straight at Scotiabank Arena. Anthony Stolarz has a 2.09 GAA there this year.
So why grab this Saturday game now? I believe it will end up north of -200 when everyone realizes how shorthanded Edmonton is expected to be with Leon Draisaitl reaggravating his injury and Connor McDavid still apparently out (and a few others). Really, really feels like a punt game against the NHL's best home team. As long as the Kings don't take a collective field trip to Tijuana or something of the sort late tonight, I feel pretty good about this.
Look, I ain't re-inventing the wheel here. We back motivated NHL teams in April RS games. That's it. Carolina has little to play for. It has clinched a playoff spot and will finish second in the Metro. A couple key guys are listed as iffy, and there's no reason to push anyone moderately injured at this point. The Wings don't have a great shot at a WC spot, but they have a shot. Must get a point minimum ... and that's all we want.
Maybe Sharks goalie Gabriel Carriere will have a fine NHL career but the 24-year-old is reportedly making his debut, so I expect at least three goals allowed considering he had a 3.13 GAA this season with the San Jose Barracudas in the AHL. Edmonton's Zach Hyman is on the top line, so we'd think he at worst assists on one of those Oilers goals.
We backed a Canadian team at home last night that simply had to have a win for its WC hopes against a visiting team with no shot at the playoffs ... and wow did the Canucks lay an egg. Same spot here basically for Calgary, which is 19-12-5 at home and will have the better goalie in American Dustin Wolf. He has a 2.33 GAA at home this year and is 2-0 with a 1.48 GAA in two overall starts against Anaheim. The Flames probably can kiss a WC spot goodbye with a regulation loss.
This late in the season when a team badly needs the full two points, I will generally not play the -1 unless of course the moneyline is massive. This is not too bad on the Habs, who got probably their biggest win of the season Tuesday night in shocking Florida late due to Nick Suzuki heroics (x2). Eliminated Boston has completely mailed it on a nine-game skid. Chasing that final East WC spot, Montreal cannot afford a loss in regulation or OT/shootout to a team this bad. Gotta get the two points. Otherwise I might worry about a letdown after sweeping the RS series against the defending Cup champions.
Let's go ahead and grab this Wednesday game now on the Canucks as I expect this to rise quite a bit by tomorrow as they are smack-dab in the crowded West WC chase and MUST get two points in a home game against an eliminated team seven games under .500 away. Now that No. 1 netminder Thatcher Demko is back from a long injury absence for Vancouver, it's a vastly better team. A few injured forwards may also return on Wednesday led by Elias Pettersson (45 points).
At home, Colorado's Nathan MacKinnon has 67 points in 39 games and has at least one point in 25 straight in Denver. His numbers away are good but not nearly the same with 43 points in 36 games and he also averages a minute fewer of ice time away. The Hart Trophy candidate has a single two-point game in his past 10. Feels like a bit of a trap game for the Avs as it is off a long homestand and facing an eliminated opponent.
Recommend -1 but we aren't getting that option (BetRivers) right now so ... we shall roll with this. Two bad teams, but I think both on the right track in rebuilds and Anaheim is simply ahead of San Jose in that regard. Not sure either franchise has its long-term goaltender, but Alexander Georgiev is definitely not it for San Jose. The former Avalanche has allowed 11 goals in his last two outings and is 7-17-1 since the trade with a 3.84 GAA and .874 SV. I mean, I could do that. Obviously, I couldn't but more like I'm just a big dude with a growing midsection and would stand there. The Sharks have lost their past two games by a combined score of 14-2.
I didn't wake up this morning even planning to fade the Predators tonight in Philly much less Tuesday again in Columbus but that's where we are. Same reasons to fade Nashville again -- injured key players, awful away, nothing to play for and now add the second of a B2B. Columbus (21-9-5 at home) simply HAS to get the two points in a game like this as it chases the second WC spot in the East. Backup Danill Tarasov was in net last game (we fade him always and cashed) so there should be no doubt it's No. 1 Elvis Merzlikins on Tuesday unless he's sick or something. I believe this is a good 25-30 cents too low, so I won't bother with -1.
Ottawa has everything to play for and Buffalo nothing. Sabres No. 1 goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was arguably the NHL's worst in net in March with a 4.11 GAA, so I'm fine if it's him or No. 2 James Reimer. This really isn't a game the Sens can lose and deserve to make the postseason. And it almost surely will be No. 1 Linus Ullmark because No. 2 Anton Forsberg started last time out (and lost). Ullmark was 9-2-1 in March with a .902 SV.