Should the Capitals be home dogs vs. the Hurricanes? ...

Pretty excited about this series. It's obviously not a bad thing for the Panthers that they won their first-round series vs. rival Tampa Bay in five games but the one drawback of it not going six is that top blueliner Aaron Ekblad must finish his suspension in Game 1 at Toronto on Monday. Ekblad had 33 RS points, is a big part of the team's power play and was plus-11. The Leafs, meanwhile, were lights out with the man advantage in Round 1 vs. Ottawa at 35.3%. Goalie Anthony Stolarz allowed more than two goals just once vs. the Sens and had a 1.86 GAA on home ice during the RS.

Not much more than backing the home team -- they are 116-82 all-time in Game 7s and went 3-1 last year. Connor Hellebuyck has looked nothing like the sure-fire Vezina winner he will be, but I think he shows tonight in the biggest game of his career and a bit of a referendum on it. Remember, he was the losing goalie for Team USA vs. Canada's Jordan Binnington, of the Blues, in the 4 Natons Face-Off. So if Hellebuyck plays badly again tonight, then maybe there is a mental issue in big games. It's also perhaps the biggest game ever in Winnipeg as that city has never hosted a Game 7 before, which I found surprising.

Not much better than a Game 7 in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Why would I not take Dallas getting +1 Saturday at home priced -135 when Colorado is slightly more expensive as a road moneyline favorite? I think this should basically be a pick'em, so I'll happily take it. There is some talk that excellent Stars blueliner Miro Heiskanen could make his series debut Saturday off a knee injury. Dallas netminder Jake Oettinger has been in this position before. Colorado's Mackenzie Blackwood has not. Dallas is 5-3 all-time in home Game 7s. Colorado is 2-5 in road Game 7s.

Do I lean Blues winning Friday? I do. But, again, I take gifts and +1 is a gift. First time since 2022 where a home team has won the first five of an NHL playoff series. Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck was nothing short of terrible in the two games in St. Louis and really hasn't been very good in this series overall but for one game. And now Winnipeg is without captain and second-leading RS scorer Mark Scheifele due to injury for Game 6.

For entertainment purposes, I would "almost" eat my wager Thursday to see a Game 7 in this series. This has been such fun hockey, reminds me so much of when I first picked up the sport as a kid on TV and guys were flying around late at night on some random channel in the 39 range on that old-school slider cable box that went to 42. I was actually looking for Benny Hill then, but that's another story. The Kings have to be gutted after losing a rare, rare home game. And L.A. is four games under .500 away. So, yeah, I think yet again the Oilers oust L.A. in Round 1.

Do I lean Wild winning? Yes. Vegas is without regular-season goalscoring leader Pavel Dorofeyev (35G, 17A in RS). But we don't turn down +1.5 on a home team in the playoffs at less than -200. You are probably fine with +1 at -122 as a push potential. But let's just pay the 60 extra cents to sit back and enjoy a possible ATS guaranteed OT win as if I am the Front Man during a particularly murderous round of Squid Game.

Winnipeg's Connor Hellebuyck was pulled from both games in St. Louis, but the American is an obscene 29-3-3 at home this season including playoffs with a GAA well under 2.00. And the Jets should get a big offensive boost Wednesday with the return of top-line winger Gabriel Vilardi for the first time since March 23. He career highs in goals (27), assists (34) and points (61) in 71 games before doing down injured.

Somewhat the same boat as last night as to why we are playing -1 instead of the moneyline -- although the Tuesday play was moot since Ottawa was an upset winner. But with Montreal down 3-1, the Habs will be pulling their goalie much earlier than they would in a RS game if they trail by a goal in the third period. And No. 1 netminder Sam Montembeault is out again as is top-six forward Patrik Laine -- one of the league's top goalscorers on the power play during the RS. Top-six blueliner Alexandre Carrier is in doubt. Rookie netminder Jakub Dobes makes his first playoff road start for Montreal. The Capitals truly have no right losing this game and going back to Canada.

I usually play the moneyline in the postseason and this is a respectable -165 or so. Why not here? Ottawa is down 3-1 in the series, so if the Sens are down a goal with about five minutes left give or take, they might pull their goalie that early and the Leafs just pile on. If we push otherwise, fine. Purely as a hockey fan, I'd like to see Ottawa win here and in Game 6 to force a Game 7 simply to hear all the usual angst out of Toronto about another playoff flop ... but I believe the Leafs finish it off and rest up for most likely Florida. May have to consider making the drive over to Sunrise for a game.

I consider these teams evenly matched, so getting the home team +1 at basically the same price as the visiting club's moneyline is something I'll almost always take in that scenario. Stars netminder Jake Oettinger was significantly better at home during the RS, although that didn't mean much in the first two games of this series in Big D. Dallas All-Star forward Mikko Rantanen, the former Avalanche, is way overdue to have an impact with just an assist and minus-4 rating.

Thank you Oilers for cashing my biggest NHL bet of the season in Game 3. Major sweat for a while there, but that's why Edmonton is so fun. All of a sudden, seven goals. Not quite that confident here (you really can't ever be that super-duper confident with their goaltending), but I see no reason why they won't win again at home on Sunday. The Kings are now three games under .500 away this season. That's now 17 straight playoff games vs. LA with at least one point for Leon Draisaitl.

Wonder if this is the first time a team on at least a 13-game home winning streak is a home dog in a playoff game. The Blues trucked the Jets in Game 3, 7-2, and Winnipeg goalie Connor Hellebuyck has looked shaky in two of three this series. That has always been the knock on the soon-to-be three-time Vezina winner: Some questionable postseason performances. Why play +1 instead of Blues ML even if I tend to believe St. Louis wins? The Wild's home OT loss yesterday is why: Insurance is our friend. And if you played regulation +1, you won.

They say always go with your gut, and my first instinct was Stars +1.5 at same price as Avalanche ML in Game 3, and now obviously I wish I had done that with Dallas prevailing in OT. Sometimes perhaps I do worry about empty-net goals too much. They are less prevalent in playoff games until we get to desperation time. But here, I just don't see Colorado losing three straight overall (last in January) and two in a row at home. The Avs are a dinged post or two from being up 3-0 with two OT losses. They have largely controlled the offensive zone.

Same deal as Game 3. I believe the Wild win outright, but why wouldn't I pay 40 cents or so for insurance if goes to OT? I will "gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today" type of thing. Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy have recorded multiple points in each of the first three games of the series for Minnesota -- which has looked like vastly the better team in the past two and yet we are getting +1. But I may be stuck in a USS Callister sim (so missed good Black Mirror).