Matt's Picks (4 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
I was really curious what Aaron Judge's price would be on Over/Under 0.5 home runs in Colorado. I don't care if he's playing on the moon (does the wind blow out on Luna?), I'm taking Under at less than -200. Judge might hit four dingers tonight, no doubt about it. But he also might be walked four times. Winds are actually blowing in some at Coors Field, not that it probably matters when it comes to Judge.
I was wondering if we'd get a flip at one of our books to 3.5 and there we go at Caesars. I'm still stinging from the Rockies not covering +3 the other day vs. the Phillies when leading 3-1 entering the seventh inning. They lost by six because, I mean, they are the Rockies. But I tend to think they play decently well on a holiday weekend in front of rare full houses with the Yankees making a very rare visit to Denver. NYY pitcher Clarke Schmidt has a 7.20 road ERA, but he'd still be the ace of Colorado's rotation. There probably won't be a save situation, but Yanks closer Luke Weaver is surely not available after pitching the past three nights.
I don't think I've gotten a Padres game right, fade or back, since late April. I swear every year it's them, the Giants and the Blue Jays that just Rubik's Cube me. Sure, I Kobayashi Maru'd the Cube eventually by simply breaking it and gluing back together. That's when I knew I was devious. Course, I was 44 when happened so I may have issues ... Ronald Acuna Jr. is expected to make his return on Friday from a torn ACL. That's enough to play the Braves by itself. Oh, and Chris Sale is pitching.
Toronto had to play an 11-inning game on Thursday, used basically every reliever it has and then traveled to Tampa (where it has never played a RS game before). The Rays were off on Thursday, so decent advantage there. The Jays are three games under .500 away. Tampa Bay starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen looks back in pre-injury form with a 2.93 ERA and off five shutout innings. No Toronto players have crazy-good splits off him.
Standalone game, so we generally like to have an opinion on those. I have no idea why the Red Sox are getting +1.5 in Game 1 of the DH as pretty much all their regulars are in, and it's not Lucas Giolito in the opener (Game 2) but Brayan Bello. He was shelled last time out but had been good at Fenway otherwise in 2025. On the road, batters are hitting .293 off Orioles lefty Cade "Maury" Povich (1-5, 5.23). He is 0-2 with 5.28 in three career appearances vs. Boston. The O's are 8-17 on the road.
I'm a big George Kirby guy and in fact the Mariners righty was my longer-shot AL Cy Young pick in 2024. He was quite good but not that good. Kirby hasn't pitched in the Show in 2025 due to shoulder inflammation and only got to 64 pitches in his final rehab start, so this seems a bit overpriced on Seattle as if Kirby will go eight strong. Maybe five. Houston's Lance McCullers Jr. was one of the AL's better pitchers as recently as 2021 but injuries have derailed his career. He has been good in two of his three starts this year and was shredded in the other. Houston is 15-9 at home. One-run loss fine by me.
Haven't really done much on Marty this year since he left the White Sox, but he's back in "form." After a hot start by his standards, which means a .237 average on April 21, Maldonado is down to .188 on the year and 3-for-21 with eight strikeouts this month. If he gets a hit off Jays starter Kevin Gausman, it's a duck snort or something lucky. And then maybe the Padres sub him out for offense if they are down in the later innings.
Cool temps and winds blowing in about 10 mph from center field in Pittsburgh. Offenses often struggle in a day game after a night one -- and the teams combined for a single run last night. Pirates starter Andrew Heaney has been solid with a 3.02 ERA, while the Reds' Brady Singer has a 3.31 ERA in two starts during the day. A couple of Pirates regulars are taking a seat.
The Royals' Michael Lorenzen is 1-4 with a 5.35 ERA on the road and the KC bullpen is very thinned-out having been used a lot both Sunday and Monday. Wilmer Flores smashes Lorenzen career, going 7-for-14 with three homers. SF's Hayden Birdsong is a glorified opener but has a 1.69 home ERA.
I don't think much of Yankees pitcher Will Warren, but no way that Rangers lefty Patrick Corbin (3-2, 3.35 ERA) suddenly got good for the first time in six years and at age 35. New York leads the majors in OPS against southpaws at .869. Cody Bellinger is raking during a 13-game hitting streak and is a career .391 hitter off Corbin. Texas, still without Corey Seager, is 8-13 on the road.
Tampa Bay's Zach Littell has three straight quality starts and hasn't allowed more than three earned since April 10. It's the first big-league start and Astros debut for lefty Brandon Walter. The 28-year-old made his big-league debut last year with Boston and got into nine games in relief with a 6.26 ERA. Houston almost surely is without closer Josh Hader and top setup man Bryan Abreu as both have pitched Sunday and Monday.