Rather surprised the Avalanche are even favored with half the roster expected out for the second game in a row after we cashed today with the Kings beating short-handed Colorado. Just zero reason to care for the Avs in their RS finale and ahead of the playoffs, but I'll happily take the +1 on Anaheim. The Ducks are 27-13 ATS at home this season with only our cash cow Columbus better. It's Anaheim's home finale (not season), and we always like clubs in those (and openers).

This is usually my favorite $$ of year on hockey because we know what teams are playing for. Alas, have missed two in a row. Last one was my bad picking between two teams with nothing to play for (Bruins-Hawks). Lesson learned. This is not the case. The NHL standings can be confusing because regulation wins (actually points % -- I don't pretend to know) are what matter via tiebreakers. Long story short, the Avs have zero to play for as they are locked into Central third place. Thus, I expect many guys to sit out Saturday. The Kings, though, are still playing for home-ice advantage in Round 1 and are the best team in the league at home.

My NHL hot streak ended Wednesday as the Rangers scored five goals at home in a must-win game and somehow lost. Why they started backup goalie Jonathan Quick is indefensible. Don't care if it was part of a B2B. You had to win that one first. Both of these clubs are long eliminated, but you may well know that I'm a Hawks fan. I promise they are trying to lose out and "catch" San Jose for the worst record and best chance to win the lottery. That's one reason why struggling backup Arvid Soderblom is in net tonight. He has lost five straight with a 4.36 GAA and .841 SV.

The Flyers are long eliminated from the playoffs and might be without their top two centers in Sean Couturier (40 points) and Ryan Poehling (27 points) due to injury. If they are remotely hurt, why on earth play them now? The Rangers don't have a great shot at the last East Wild Card spot, but they have a chance and pretty much need to win out. An OT/shootout loss will not cut it here. Thus, we play this straight up instead of -1.

Seattle is long eliminated from playoff contention and playing the second of a B2B after facing the Kings in LA on Monday night. That should mean we get awful backup Philipp Grubauer on Tuesday, and he's 7-17-1 with a 3.53 GAA on the year. Utah technically still has a WC shot but it would essentially have to win out and get a miracle's worth of help. Little pride at stake as well Tuesday to avoid the three-game season sweep to the Kraken -- it's their first-ever trip to Salt Lake City.

The Blues have won 12 straight, but all good things must end (a majority of it coming on home ice), and they certainly are not near this good. Excellent young forward Dylan Holloway (26G, 37A) is out injured as is top blueliner Colton Parayko (35 points). Winnipeg is 28-6-4 at home and playing for the Central Division title/Presidents' Trophy. Connor Hellebuyck is 25-3-3 on home ice with a 1.67 GAA on the way to another Vezina Trophy.

Slumping Florida seems to be punting on this one with several key guys out: Aleksander Barkov (67 points), Sam Bennett (50 points), Sam Reinhart (78 points) and a few others, as well as the Cats starting backup Vitek Vanecek in net in the second of a B2B. It's desperation time for the Red Wings as they simply have to get two points or their WC hopes are on life support.

Second of a B2B for both on Sunday, but Ottawa didn't have to travel and didn't use its No. 1 goaltender Saturday afternoon in beating Florida to improve to 23-11-2 on home ice. Columbus did use its No. 1 on Saturday night in Toronto and got routed (good for us having Leafs played -1) to fall to 12-22-4 away ... and then obviously a little travel. Since the beginning of March, Sens netminder Linus Ullmark is 10-3-1 in 14 starts with a .904 save percentage. He beat the Jackets on March 29.

While the NBA is essentially unbettable (not an official word but should be along with "schwing!") right now, we have been doing pretty well on the pucks in backing the home teams with motivation against visiting teams with none. Seems simple, I know, but it often isn't that easy. And sure we get "Vancouvered" (also should be a word) every once in a while, but the Flyers have no shot at the playoffs and the Habs absolutely need the two points. It's rather fun/easy betting games where I need not even bother looking up goalie stats, betting trends, etc. This is Motivation 101. Were this game a month ago, I'd play -1. Not now.

We love the Blue Jackets in Columbus, but they are 12-21-4 away and No. 1 netminder Elvis Merzlikins has sprung a leak with 25 goals allowed over his past five -- a whopping seven given up last time out. He probably has been overworked. Toronto players will be well aware that Columbus is trying for the season sweep. The Leafs have been excellent at home at 24-13-1 and have won four straight at Scotiabank Arena. Anthony Stolarz has a 2.09 GAA there this year.

So why grab this Saturday game now? I believe it will end up north of -200 when everyone realizes how shorthanded Edmonton is expected to be with Leon Draisaitl reaggravating his injury and Connor McDavid still apparently out (and a few others). Really, really feels like a punt game against the NHL's best home team. As long as the Kings don't take a collective field trip to Tijuana or something of the sort late tonight, I feel pretty good about this.

Look, I ain't re-inventing the wheel here. We back motivated NHL teams in April RS games. That's it. Carolina has little to play for. It has clinched a playoff spot and will finish second in the Metro. A couple key guys are listed as iffy, and there's no reason to push anyone moderately injured at this point. The Wings don't have a great shot at a WC spot, but they have a shot. Must get a point minimum ... and that's all we want.

Maybe Sharks goalie Gabriel Carriere will have a fine NHL career but the 24-year-old is reportedly making his debut, so I expect at least three goals allowed considering he had a 3.13 GAA this season with the San Jose Barracudas in the AHL. Edmonton's Zach Hyman is on the top line, so we'd think he at worst assists on one of those Oilers goals.

We backed a Canadian team at home last night that simply had to have a win for its WC hopes against a visiting team with no shot at the playoffs ... and wow did the Canucks lay an egg. Same spot here basically for Calgary, which is 19-12-5 at home and will have the better goalie in American Dustin Wolf. He has a 2.33 GAA at home this year and is 2-0 with a 1.48 GAA in two overall starts against Anaheim. The Flames probably can kiss a WC spot goodbye with a regulation loss.

This late in the season when a team badly needs the full two points, I will generally not play the -1 unless of course the moneyline is massive. This is not too bad on the Habs, who got probably their biggest win of the season Tuesday night in shocking Florida late due to Nick Suzuki heroics (x2). Eliminated Boston has completely mailed it on a nine-game skid. Chasing that final East WC spot, Montreal cannot afford a loss in regulation or OT/shootout to a team this bad. Gotta get the two points. Otherwise I might worry about a letdown after sweeping the RS series against the defending Cup champions.