Mike's Picks (4 Live)
Pittsburgh has Lamar Jackson's number, and here are some numbers to illustrate it . . .
The Spartans have won five of the past six straight-up and eclipsed 100 points in the latest two, though they needed overtime in one . . .
A questionable move by the Falcons to switch to rookie Michael Penix Jr. at QB while still very much alive in the playoff chase . . .
Mike's Past Picks
Jackson State might be helping the program's financial bottom line with an insane schedule, but the Tigers rank among the bottom of D-I as a result. They are winless straight-up with nary a home game played, the first still a few weeks away. UTEP is a notch or two below Iowa State, Kentucky and Houston -- all of which blasted JSU -- yet the Miners are 7-3 outright and 5-3 ATS. The Tigers have covered only four times. They have not played since Dec. 8, and a rusty team that scores just 61.1 ppg -- ninth lowest in the nation -- might need a few games to sufficiently find the basket to be competitive.
Given the unpredictable elements in bowls, heavy underdogs carry appeal. While starting QB Darian Mensah abandoned Tulane, replacement Ty Thompson is a former five-star recruit. In relief of Mensah, he was effectively run-first, which could keep the clock moving and shorten the game. He expects to have top WR Mario Williams and top RB Makhi Hughes at his disposal. Tulane's defense is rigid enough to limit Gator scoring. Though the Green Wave dropped their last two, they were impressive during an eight-game SU streak. Further reassurance: Florida coach Billy Napier is 0-4 ATS in bowls.
Best to hold off until closer to gametime to see if the hook disappears, seeing as how -3 is preferable. For now, Ohio is the play. The Bobcats know their way around bowls, having won five in a row straight up. They are unbeaten this year as a money line favorite and stand 9-4 ATS. The departure of both head coaches shrouds the matchup in a degree of uncertainty, but the changes at the top should not affect the Bobcats' stellar rush defense (ranked fifth in fewest yards allowed, 10th per carry). It is equipped to slow down Jax State's second-ranked run offense. If one side suffers from an interim head coach taking over, it could be Jax State without its imposing overlord, Rich Rodriguez.
Welcome to a projected battle of third-string quarterbacks. Injuries and transfers have erased the top names from both sides on the depth chart. The difference is, numerous other Hilltoppers have jammed the transfer portal, notably their top receiver and pass rusher, along with a record-breaking placekicker. James Madison can thrive offensively even with a QB, Billy Adkins, who has unfurled one pass all season. (It fell incomplete). Western’s rush defense is dreadful, so the Dukes should be handing off left and right . . . and up the middle. The ’Toppers’ stellar bowl record — three straight outright wins, seven of the last nine — is irrelevant because what’s left of the roster is a shell of its former self.
Memphis QB Seth Henigan torched Iowa State's defense in last year's bowl gig with 364 passing yards and four TDs. Imagine how he might fare against the 120th-ranked pass defense, which is missing portal-bound LB Josiah Trotter, the No. 2 tackler. The Tigers beat Iowa State by 10 points, following wins by 15 and 28 in bowls the previous two years under coach Ryan Silverfield. Motivation is no issue for them in the postseason. On offense, West Virginia QB Garrett Greene fesses up to a dismal 13/11 ratio for TD throws and interceptions. The Tigers' +16 turnover figure is second-best in FBS and far better than the Mountaineers' -6. Interim boss Chad Scott has never served as a head coach.
TCU shakes off the rust from eight days between games while trying to shake off the loss of their most valued player. Guard Frankie Collins, who leads the Horned Frogs in points, assists and steals, is gone for the season with an injury. They are 2-7 against the line, with three straight-up defeats in the last four outings. South Alabama, in contrast, stands 5-4 ATS, including 3-1 on the road. The Jaguars did play Sunday afternoon but in a low-stress wins over a small school in which only two players exceeded 30 minutes. Fatigue should not be a factor.
The Bears are winless outright on the road this season, with the worst one (38-13 at San Francisco) happening just last Sunday. They have two away wins the past two seasons. (One occurred on a Monday night, perhaps a hopeful sign here.) Adding to the challenge is this third consecutive outing that requires travel. A coaching change often spurs improvement, but Chicago regressed in its opener for interim Thomas Brown. The Vikings' lone home defeat was a two-pointer to Detroit -- the best team in the NFC, if not the NFL. QB Sam Darnold has been reborn in the Twin Cities.
Props to the Seahawks for winning their last four games, all as underdogs. Yet the roll call of victims -- the battered 49ers, Jets and Cardinals (twice) -- removes from sheen from the streak. Green Bay has dropped four all season, all against formidable foes -- Eagles, Vikings, Lions twice. The Packers tend to get warmed up in December, having gone 16-0 SU under coach Matt LaFleur prior to last season. Seattle's defense is largely responsible for its streak and must be firing on all cylinders here since the offense will miss main RB Kenneth Walker Jr.
We held off until injury updates, and the news tips the scales toward Tampa Bay. Ace RB Bucky Irving and B-plus WR Sterling Shepard are a go, according to reports. The Bucs should not need a flood of points to handle the Chargers, whose offense has taken a step back without ailing RB J.K. Dobbins: 17 points in each of the past two games. While the Bucs own one fewer win than L.A., their list of conquests is more dazzling. Among them are the Lions, Commanders and Eagles. They have won the last three outright, and their half-dozen defeats include two in overtime. For the Chargers, a litany of moderate injuries to QB Justin Herbert could take a toll here.
Broncos backers can take comfort in two stats. Denver has downed all seven opponents outright who now are saddled with a losing record. The defense blitzes more frequently than all but one team, and Indy QB Anthony Richardson is shaky under such circumstances. His passer rating is 65.4, worst in the league under blitzes. The Broncos have knocked off the last three visitors to the Mile High City, each by at least two scores. QB Bo Nix has played his way up to second on the oddsboard for Rookie of the Year.
There are breaks in the schedule, and there is what A&M ends today. The Bulldogs will play their first game in December and only third on the road this season. November did not exactly go well, with the 'Dogs losing five of their last six -- including a 48-pointer at Georgia and, most recently, a 38-pointer at home to Lipscomb. The Mocs are 4-1 straight-up at home. A special holiday promotion should draw fans and assure a decided home-court edge.