The total has inched up with QB Patrick Mahomes cleared to play as well as other skill-position players coping with injuries. Given Mahomes' gimpy ankle, his dropbacks to throw -- and his love of scrambling -- should be curtailed. More handoffs mean a shorter game. K.C. wields the league's third stringiest defense, with the Steelers 12th. The Chiefs have reached the 30-point mark in regulation once all season, and the target here could be beyond reach. Pittsburgh has exceeded the number once since its bye in Week 9. An above-average total seems like a holiday gift for Under players.

It's expected to be so cold in Green Bay that Saints QBs prepared by practicing in the freezer at Lambeau Field. The absence of QB Derek Carr, RB Alvin Tamara and jack of all trades Taysom Hill cripples New Orleans' offense. The Packers can shorten the game by handing off to tireless RB Josh Jacobs (nine TDs in the last five games), build a safe lead and close it out by 11 p.m. (ET). Green Bay's defense, which yields the eighth fewest points, should keep the visitors in the mid-teens -- or a bit under the temperature.

This line has flipped even with former favorite Miami getting WR Tyreek Hill back, according to reports. That's a blessing for the Dolphins, with fellow WR Jaylen Waddle iffy. Meantime, the 49ers are down to seeds and stems at the RB position, with third-stringer Isaac Guerendo the latest to be ruled out. It's a lo-o-o-ng road trip for San Fran, which is barely in the picture of playoff contenders. The Fish have won four of the last six, with decent losses to Green Bay and Houston. They should be the faves.

Ninety points scored the past two weeks. Thirty-plus points in every home game this year. Sure, the Bills are a juggernaut offensively. Here's a hunch they are subject to a letdown, even against a rival. Mix in temperatures in the low teens, and a lower-than-expected score that would magnify the sizable spread is in the cards. Pats QB Drake Maye is good for at least one touchdown throw; he last was kept out of the end zone seven games ago. For what it's worth, New England has received this many points just once before in three decades -- and easily covered in the game last year versus Buffalo.

The Rams, one of the most injury-impacted teams early this season, arrive in the Big Apple without a single player listed questionable or worse on the depth chart. In mid-December, that is a rare blessing. Jets QB Aaron Rodgers looked like the old A-Rod last weekend, but the antagonist was lowly Jacksonville. New York notched only its second outright win in 11 games against the Jags, which hardly signals a turnaround. They have covered once in six tries against plus-.500 foes. Conversely, L.A. has ripped off three SU wins in a row and seven of the last nine. This spread seems based on how the Jets should be, not how they are.

There is some risk in picking the Bears before they take the field Monday night. Yet this line could be headed south because Detroit will take the field Sunday without a bunch of key players. On offense, scratch RB David Montgomery. On defense, scratch (deep breath) CBs Khalil Dorsey and Carlton Davis III, along with DT Alim McNeill. Entering Monday's matchup with Minnesota, Chicago had not won straight-up since mid-October. Until getting hammered by the 49ers in their last outing, however, they were competitive, falling to their three elite NFC North brethren by a combined seven points -- one in overtime. The recent three-point defeat at Detroit bodes well for a close finish. The Bears will welcome their first home date in a month.

A questionable move by the Falcons to switch to rookie Michael Penix Jr. at QB while still very much alive in the playoff chase. Make no mistake, Kirk Cousins has slumped, but his track record suggests the slide won't last forever. Penix has mopped up twice this season, throwing all of five passes, and faces a decent defense. Cousins does not shoulder all of the blame for the Falcons failing to exceed 21 points in the past five games. As sleepy as the Giants offense has been, it won't need to register a lot of points for a cover.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a former fifth-round pick, was never envisioned as a starting QB. Yet here he is, replacing the erratic Jameis Winston. With RB Nick Chubb injured yet again, Thompson-Robinson will carry a burden too large for him to handle. The 20-point mark seems beyond reach. Cleveland's defense could throw a wrench in the Bengals' gears if Myles Garrett remains inspired. He induces nightmares in QB Joe Burrow, who has been dragged down nine times by the peerless pass rusher.

Pittsburgh has Lamar Jackson's number, and here are some numbers to illustrate it. The QB's passer rating against the Steelers is 66.2, easily his worst versus a team. He has won one of five meetings straight-up, easily his lousiest rate. It appears Jackson must cope with LB T.J. Watt, who was iffy earlier in the week. Pittsburgh must find a way to score without WR George Pickens, but the track record is promising given that it has knocked off the Ravens as an underdog six consecutive times. Besides, the Ravens WR crew is thinned out by injuries. A full TD spot is healthy in a a game likely with a moderate score.

The Bears are winless outright on the road this season, with the worst one (38-13 at San Francisco) happening just last Sunday. They have two away wins the past two seasons. (One occurred on a Monday night, perhaps a hopeful sign here.) Adding to the challenge is this third consecutive outing that requires travel. A coaching change often spurs improvement, but Chicago regressed in its opener for interim Thomas Brown. The Vikings' lone home defeat was a two-pointer to Detroit -- the best team in the NFC, if not the NFL. QB Sam Darnold has been reborn in the Twin Cities.

Props to the Seahawks for winning their last four games, all as underdogs. Yet the roll call of victims -- the battered 49ers, Jets and Cardinals (twice) -- removes from sheen from the streak. Green Bay has dropped four all season, all against formidable foes -- Eagles, Vikings, Lions twice. The Packers tend to get warmed up in December, having gone 16-0 SU under coach Matt LaFleur prior to last season. Seattle's defense is largely responsible for its streak and must be firing on all cylinders here since the offense will miss main RB Kenneth Walker Jr.

We held off until injury updates, and the news tips the scales toward Tampa Bay. Ace RB Bucky Irving and B-plus WR Sterling Shepard are a go, according to reports. The Bucs should not need a flood of points to handle the Chargers, whose offense has taken a step back without ailing RB J.K. Dobbins: 17 points in each of the past two games. While the Bucs own one fewer win than L.A., their list of conquests is more dazzling. Among them are the Lions, Commanders and Eagles. They have won the last three outright, and their half-dozen defeats include two in overtime. For the Chargers, a litany of moderate injuries to QB Justin Herbert could take a toll here.

Broncos backers can take comfort in two stats. Denver has downed all seven opponents outright who now are saddled with a losing record. The defense blitzes more frequently than all but one team, and Indy QB Anthony Richardson is shaky under such circumstances. His passer rating is 65.4, worst in the league under blitzes. The Broncos have knocked off the last three visitors to the Mile High City, each by at least two scores. QB Bo Nix has played his way up to second on the oddsboard for Rookie of the Year.

We tend to overestimate QB comparisons in games, but how can we not be swayed by the Joe Burrow versus Will Levis mismatch? Burrow is the best passer this season by most measures. Levis ranks just above Tommy DeVito. To be fair, Burrow benefits from throwing to peerless WR Ja'Marr Chase. The Bengals are scoring at least in the high 20s regularly, whereas the Titans rarely reach 20 anymore. Burrow tends to heat up in December, when he is 9-3 outright (including January games). As a road favorite, the QB is 12-4 in his career against the spread and unbeaten this season.

When the Giants announced that QB Tommy DeVito would start instead Drew Lock, the spread bounced so high that it became the fourth largest for a home underdog this century. Really? DeVito has played better than his more seasoned teammate. Also, the Giants' defense ranks midpack for points allowed, which is impressive given how little the offense graces the field. Double-digit underdogs stumbled early this season but have righted themselves with five consecutive covers, mostly by wide margins. Frankly, this spot is insane. Of the Giants' 11 losses, eight have occurred by differences well below this crazy-high total.