Might the 49ers win this game? Sure. It’s at home and they are a talented team with a good coach. There’s just not a scenario where picking against the Lions in this spot makes much sense. San Francisco is out of the playoffs, and Detroit has a No. 1 seed in its sights. Brock Purdy has thrown for less than 160 yards in three of the last five weeks (all losses), and he will now be operating behind an offensive line missing more key players. Jared Goff has thrown 17 TD to one INT over the last six weeks with Detroit's only loss coming to Buffalo. The Lions are injured defensively, but the Niners have given up 29+ points over four of five weeks.

Momentum for the Falcons behind Michael Penix Jr. is understandable, especially given how he opens up the running game for Bijan Robinson against a Commanders unit that has struggled all season up front. Washington’s elite offense should not be discounted, though, especially against a struggling Atlanta D. The only defenses that have limited Jayden Daniels this season have been among the best in the league, and a couple wins over the Raiders and Giants don’t make the Falcons one of those. Plus, Atlanta has nearly zero pass rush while Penix is making his first road start against a Dan Quinn defense outdoors.

There was some pause here with Christian Watson being listed as inactive given his field-stretching ability opens a ton underneath for Jordan Love and the Packers, but this is nevertheless the right spot to pick Green Bay over Minnesota. The Pack are 0-4 against the best teams they faced this season, but they have been rolling on both sides of the ball recently. Love has cut down on his turnovers, and the defense has locked down overall despite the continued absence of Jaire Alexander. The Vikings have been tremendous, but they haven’t faced a team of quality since late October. Minnesota would have lost the first meeting if not for all of Love’s questionable throws (and two missed field goals).

The 1 p.m. window is dreadful, and this is the only spot that seems to offer any value. The Colts are running their entire offense through Jonathan Taylor, which takes a lot of pressure off Joe Flacco. While his play as a backup this season has been criticized, he’s still moved the ball well, and this might be the last game of his entire career. Indianapolis has more weapons, more talent and more at stake. The Giants are dreadful and 1-9 ATS since Oct. 6. With this line hitting -7, it’s worth a play as New York has lost four of five games by that number. I will also have the Colts as a teaser with the Eagles in this window.

Why should anyone believe in Kyler Murray and the Cardinals these days? They haven't won a road game since Oct. 27 (1-2 ATS) only beating the Bears, Jets and Patriots at home. Now, they’re eliminated from the playoffs and relying on … pride? The Rams have held their last three non-Bills opponents to 14 points or less, and they can lock up the division. Don’t get it twisted: This line is inflated. Los Angeles should be favored in the dead zone (4.5-5.5). However, Sean McVay is nails in December, and this play is situational. Don’t see how the Cards get the Rams off the field regularly, and Arizona will struggle against Jared Verse with two backup OTs. Will try to get it -6 before kickoff.

Indicative of this being a true 50/50 game is the even wagering on a spread that sits at 3 and 3.5. The Bengals have surged behind Joe Burrow, but the defense is awful. The Broncos have overdelivered in all phases. Denver’s secondary is stacked, but with Tee Higgins active and Chase Brown efficient, Cincinnati can handle it. Neither side has defeated a current playoff team, which is an understated part this matchup being an unknown in Week 17. With the Dolphins and Colts both down starting QBs, the Bengals know their path is suddenly legitimate. This ultimately comes down to Burrow and his weapons at home over Bo Nix. If you cannot get -3, find a live line. Don’t want any part of -3.5.

Fully prepared to take this at -3 and then -4 as it shifted during the week. Moving past the key number is frustrating, but this looks headed to as high as -6 before kickoff. The Patriots are getting a lot of love for an impressively close loss to the Bills last week, which ignores their otherwise rough play of late. The Chargers are in a terrible travel spot, but they're on eight-plus days rest, and they have both the quarterbacking and coaching advantage. Will update further Saturday AM.

No need to make this more complicated than it needs to be. The Seahawks are a capable offensive team with an improving defense that has met bumps in the road. The Bears are a disaster behind a twice-promoted interim coach who is 0-3 losing those games by an average of 20.0 points. How often will Caleb Williams even be vertical in this game? Chicago is on a short week after playing Detroit, and teams in such situations notoriously experience downturns. Meanwhile, Seattle is all-in fighting for a playoff spot. Would I have preferred this at -3? Of course. Am I concerned about -4? Not really.

Sharps have ballooned this spread, and we’re on the wrong side of the shift. Still, the Ravens are superior, particularly with Tank Dell – a true difference maker for C.J. Stroud – sidelined for the Texans. While the defensive effort has lacked for Baltimore this season, the secondary has stepped up of late. Unlike Houston, which has basically locked up the No. 4 seed, Baltimore still needs to win to clinch a playoff spot and has eyes on taking the AFC North. Also benefitting the Ravens are a more experienced coach and better running game given the short rest with a rare Wednesday game. If you are wary at -6 or you want extra action, a Christmas teaser with the Chiefs through +4 plays.

The Steelers are completely capable of winning this game with George Pickens back giving Russell Wilson the playmaking WR he needs. In fact, last week, I was planning to take them in this spot assuing the line would be -3.5 or higher. However, except for the circumstantial first meeting against Baltimore, Pittsburgh has mostly gotten past lower-tier opponents. Kansas City can win games in any and every way. The returns of Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown have helped the Chiefs open their offense, and the opportunity to back Patrick Mahomes under a FG is almost a must at this point. By the way, Mahomes is 3-0 against Mike Tomlin with 14 TD and 1 INT lifetime. Take this through -2.5; books are bouncing around.

Originally had no desire to play this. Even now, it feels like putting a great week on the line to have action on an island game. But there’s only so many of these left. It’s a struggle to see how the Saints compete Monday night. Spencer Rattler is 0-4 when playing, losing his three actual starts by an average of 21.7 points. RB1 (Alvin Kamara), WR1 (MVS) and DT1 (Nathan Shepherd) are out with Chris Olave still sidelined. It’s snowing in Green Bay. The Packers already have three home wins (five overall) by 13+ points this season – all against better teams, offenses and quarterbacks. With Minnesota next week, Green Bay needs this for playoff positioning. Snagged -13.5 (-110) if you want to wait.

The Buccaneers should shut down the run game and roll through the Cowboys after Dallas got the chance to flex against Carolina last week. This is a value play for Tampa Bay, which has won four straight and covered five of the last six, including three wins and covers on the road. Don't see how the Cowboys stop the Bucs from rolling up and down the field behind Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans and Bucky Irving.

The Vikings giving less than a field goal in this spot creates a valuable play. The Seahawks are clearly better than middle-of-the-road teams, but they struggle when stepping up in class – just like last week against the Packers. The offensive line is in shambles, and that creates all sorts of avenues for Minnesota to attack Geno Smith. Seattle will wind up making some big plays out wide, but there won’t be much opportunity to control the clock against the NFL’s second-ranked run defense. The Vikings will be able to do exactly that and prevail in a road spot that has become less tough than it used to be.

The Eagles are playing best-in-class football right now. The Commanders rebounded nicely the last two weeks beating … the Saints and Titans. Philadelphia won by 8 as a 4.5-point home favorite five weeks ago, and that’s when it was playing out of sync. Now Philly is a point closer simply because … it’s on the road? Where it is on a 5-0 ATS run and 6-1 ATS this season? This should not come down to a field goal given Saquon Barkley put up 146 yards on Dan Quinn’s defense last time out and the Eagles’ D has been lights out recently not allowing any opponent (including the Ravens, Rams and Commies) to score more than 20 points since Nov. 3. Take Philly through -4.

This feels like an overadjustment has been made to the Jets because they played well against a terrible team (Jaguars) and bad defense (Dolphins) in consecutive weeks. New York beat Jacksonville by a TD after losing four straight. Rams-49ers was a grind last week, but Los Angeles is healthy, and it enters this game on extended rest ready to go toe-to-toe with whatever offense is thrown at them. Yes, it will be cold, and yes, the Rams are not as efficient offensively when playing outdoors under Sean McVay. But LA has won four straight away from home, it is a far better red zone team, and frankly, this is a must-win game to stay atop the NFC West.