Old habits die hard ...

Are two runs enough? ...

Bryce Miller has wipeout stuff and the Jays lineup has largely been terrible. Like most of the M's starters, Miller is particularly good at home. Jays have a .637 OPS on the road, second-worst in MLB, and this is one of the toughest hitter environments in baseball. Mariners are 12-7 at home and the Jays are 7-12 on the road. Sending Jose Urena and his 8.59 ERA to the mound won't inspire much confidence and the Jays back-end of the pen, once the only strength of the team, is starting to show major cracks now, too.

Not only do the Orioles not score on lefties, let alone beat them, most of the time they can't get a runner to second base vs them. Especially crafty, softer-tossing guys ... like Ty Anderson. O's 2-9 vs LHP, with a shameful slashline of .177/.257/.245 - .502 OPS (30th). Add in day game after night game at end of horrible road trip with a B lineup, and this plus-money, and I have to jump the Halos. O's are 27th with a .621 road OPS and while Zach Eflin is their top starter he is coming back from length IL absence and can't expect much run support.

Rockies getting whacked 20-0, of course we are fading them again. Their terrible bullpen is totally on fumes and they can't hit and they are sending a dude to a mound with a 10 ERA and whom the Friars own. Oh, they are 2-10 vs the NL West on the RL, they have a worse run differential than last year's White Sox at this stage and the Padres are sending Nick Pivetta to the mound, who has been awesome. How long before the 2.5 RL start showing up?

Lucas Giolito missed a ton of time due to major surgery and it looked the part in his first start back and likely will here as well. It's going to be a process. Seth Lugo is once again very good for the Royals and they have a far better bullpen as well. All the Rafael Devers drama is not boding well for the flailing Sox. Royals are 16-3 in their last 19 games and are especially tough at home where they excel at manufacturing runs. Don't look now but The Pasquatch has awakened.

Corbin Burnes started struggling with the longball - especially solo shots very early in the game before he had settled in - last year in Baltimore and has already given up 5 gophers in 6 starts this season. His cutter ain't quite what it used to be and Ohtani took him yard once already in 6 career at bats. Can't give in and put him on with how this lineup is constructed. Dude has already homered in the first two games of this series and I see a hat trick in his future. He's homered in 4 of his last 6 games in this ballpark.

What does low-hanging fruit taste like? Have you ever stopped to ponder? My guess is it tastes like an ice cold Coors Light these days if you just keep pounding the Rockies on the RL. They are 1-9 on RL in last 10 at home and 2-9 on the RL vs the NL West. Friars got a little too cute last night with a massive lead and don't think they stop swinging the bats here. Rockies running out a kid starter with a 6.49 career ERA.

Man, what a slow start for Juan Soto. This guy might not be cut out for the orange side of the Big Apple. Uh-oh Mets ... Yeah, how about that BS. Weather changed and Soto is Soto again and today he faces a starter he has taken out twice in 6 career ABs. He has 3 homers in the last 2 games and can be incredibly streaky. He is slugging .741 over his last 7 games. Is that good?

The Stros are struggling without Yourdan and Kyle Tucker in that lineup and have scored 3 runs or less in six straight games. You can see the frustration mounting. The Reds offense has issues but they have speed and can manufacture a little bit and they have the starter advantage here. Brady Singer is a solid starter and Lance McCullers is just coming back from a long absence and had very shaky command in his first outing back and I tend to fade guys in those spots.

This Rule IV kid has been a helluva find and help stabilize a bad rotation but this is a big ask. Marlins have cut down on their swing and miss from past seasons and are just slightly below average. Pale Hose are watching his pitch counts closely, he's thrown over 83 pitches just once and he's over this in just 2 of his 7 career starts. Smuth is in the 6th percentile in chase rate and 36th in K rate. Went over 90 pitches for first time in his last start and I wonder is rebuilding team is very careful with him here.

Sometimes teams get a bump when they fire their skipper but I doubt it here. Everybody loved Derek Shelton, especially the players, and this won't go well for a bad team. I also have a hard time believing what Andrew Heaney has been able to do thus far. The Pirates are 7-12 at home and Bravos have rounded into better form since a very slow start. The kid starting for them is legit.

The A's probably win this game outright but I like these odds. Will Warren is not a MLB starter right now and he has a 7.0 ERA on the road (with opponents batting .322 against him). The A's are 6th in HR at home. First game for East Coast team going out to Cali can be problematic.

Not worried with who starts for the Jays here. The M's have the lineup clicking and, yeah, I know it's easier to hit on the road than in this ballpark but the Jays don't hit anywhere. Luis Castillo has a 1.57 ERA at home this season. The Jays have a .607 OPS on the road (27th). Toronto is 5-12 away from home.

The Friars are swinging the bats again and Jackson Merrill's return has already proven to be a big deal. They face a starter with a 7.63 ERA pitching at home, allowing 5 HR in 15 1/3 IP. The Padres have the better pen, too. The Rockies are 8-17 on RL vs the NL and 2-8 within the mighty NL West.