This kid keeps checking a lot of boxes ...

Lefty/righty splits are hard to ignore in this one ...

Auto fade scenario for me ...

Are we sure both of these starters are MLB-caliber?...

Are either of these starters missing any bats?...

Good spot to hunt an extra-base hit? ...

Coaching and defense rule the playoffs; which of these teams fits the bill? ...

Is the Grizz D even worse at home than on the road?

The Bucks are 9-2 to the Over in their last 11 games...

The Pistons allowed an average of 119 points over their final 12 games...

I don't buy either team defensively. Getting Anthony Davis back could be huge for the Mavs, but are his legs back? Over the last 15 games, SAC is 24th in D Rating, the lowest of any playoff team, and DAL is 22nd in D Rating in that span. The Kings are allowing 48.8% FG% in the final 15 games (25th) and the Mavs allowed 49% (28th). Dallas is 13-4-1 to the over in the last 18. In the last 10 meetings between these teams, the winning team has scored at least 120+ in 8 of them. Don't trust either team to get stops when it counts. Playoffs do get officiated a little differently but this number is low enough for me to jump on it.

Operation Fade The Pale Hose rolls on. And with Jonathan Cannon on the bump it's must-fade territory for us. His 5.79 ERA probably flatters him and that 1.64 WHIP is a problem, too. The league is batting .400 off his 4-seamer and the A's have more than enough power to get into the White Sox broken bullpen quickly. Osvaldo Bido has his warts, but has excelled pitching out of jams. I like the A's to mash their way to a win here with a far superior bullpen if this is a close game (even if A's pen not up to last year's standards).

I know the playoffs, or play-in, is different than the regular season, but it's worth noting the three games between these teams produced 230, 223 and 257 points. They are over in 5 of their last 7 games, averaging 229/G in that span. The Bulls played at the fastest pace in NBA in final 15 games and No 2 in pace at home on the season. They went Over the final 15 games, Bulls games averaged 239 points and Heat 223. The Bulls were 7-2-1 over in last 10 game vs playoff teams and Miami was over in 6 of their 7 final games of the season. Both teams were in top 8 in NBA offensive rating during that stretch. I'm expecting a hectic pace.

The Yankees aren't horrible against lefties as they were a year ago, but it's also still small sample size. They are 15th in MLB in K-rate vs lefties at home, but they also haven't seen many as nasty as Kris Bubic. The kid has racked up 21 Ks already and uses a deep pitch mix, garnering 5 or more Ks with three different pitches already this season. He's also a reverse splits guy, so if Aaron Boone does the traditional thing (um, I bet he will!) and loads up with righty bats here, it plays to Bubic's favor. Ask Brandon Hyde how that worked out for him last time out. I'm buying Bubic's stuff.

Kris Bubic is legit. Yeah, the Yankees have hit lefties well early on, but haven't seen one like this yet. Bubic has wipeout stuff with 21Ks already and a 0.96 ERA. He's in 88th % in pitching run value and has 5+Ks on 3 different pitches already this season. His change, sweeper and sinker all rate plus-plus right now. I tend to fade starters like Clarke Schmidt who are coming back from a lengthy injury absence. The Royals will work up his pitch count and I don't think we see any length from him. There is an underbelly in Yanks pen if that is the case.