Jason's Picks (6 Live)
One team can't cover vs the other conference, and, the other can't stop covering out of conference ...
Jason's Past Picks
We keep fading the Blazers at home. Maybe they surprise me vs the Rockets tonight but on the back of back-to-backs, vs a team that runs up and down the court, playing at home where they have been getting blown out, I don't like this spot for them. Bulls D sucks but that shouldn't be as big of an issue here. Just got whacked by the Hornets. I figure they are somewhat focused here and just simply score way too easily for Portland to keep pace. Bulls are 6-1 ATS with rest advantage, a nod to their style of play. Blazers lack of confidence has been evident recently. Seem to expect the worst at home.
The Clippers really love their new home, and they always get up for the Lakers and I believe they can play this game at their pace and exert defensive superiority. LAC are 9-2 ATS as home favorite and 14-6 ATS at home and 12-4 as a favorite and 6-1 ATS in the division and have covered 5 straight at home. They are 13-3 ATS at home since 11/4 and have covered 5 of 6 overall. Lake Show is 1-3 ATS in last 4 games and just 3-9 ATS this season against teams in the top 10 of the NBA standings (LAC are 9th).
Designed runs against the Ravens defense go nowhere. even if the Bills get jumbo with 6 OL as they do nearly twice as much as any team, good luck with that (BAL 3rd in EPA and 4th in Success Rate vs jumbo runs). Off script Allen is their best mode of attack and his legs will be active. He's run for 46+ yards in 6 of his last 8 playoff games. Bills suffered badly with not enough option runs for Allen, and him not activating his legs enough in their first meeting. Lesson learned here with the season on the line. Close games bring this out even more in him and went over this in blowout of Broncos last week.
Ravens ran 13 times with 6 OL vs Houston a few weeks back and 15 times last week. Why do I bring this up? Because they have become increasingly comfortable with Andrews in a Tush Push look with extra heavy personnel on the field. And Bills are light in the ass in their front 7 and I expect a sledgehammer approach here. They want to bully and flex on the Bills, keep Lamar healthy, and use Derrick Henry to push Andrews up the gut in short yardage spots. Wouldn't be shocked to see him get 3-5 carries in this game.
He is a machine and he destroyed the Bills in the first meeting. They can't handle runs with a FB on field (30th in NFL at 5.9/carry) and Ravens ran for over 200 yards with FB on field in first meeting with BUF. BAL also now using 6 OL runs more than any team in NFL and Henry is far more comfortable in pistol runs now than he was in the first meeting (he was almost exclusively under center in TEN). Bills have a light front 7 and even with 8 in the box they can't hold up to a back of this size and a 300-pound FB and 260-pound blocking TE. Add in the element of Lamar and it's pick your poison.
Cook hasnt shown up in the receiving ledger - 3 straight without a target. But the Ravens are horrible defending RBs in the screen game, and Ty Johnson hasn't caught a lot of balls, either, and Cook was dominating in the pass game this time a year ago. They can attack with him between the hash marks. Ravens zone up the deep stuff and wheel routes and checkdowns to the RB are a sound way to attack. Ravens very stout on the ground but Bills will want to keep Cook involved. Roquan Smith has suffered in coverage this year despite the All Pro designation and they badly miss Patrick Queen in coverage. Bills need to control some clock and early-down screens to Cook help.
Ravens are now destroying teams out of heavy and super jumbo stuff. To this point they haven't thrown the ball out of the 6 OL looks ... That's coming and I expect Hill to flourish with it. He needed to get his legs back under him last week after missing several weeks, but he is far and away their best pass pro back, he'll get shots in the 2:00 offense and Lamar had learned to embrace the horizontal run game. I expect him to catch a wheel route and some screens. The Ravens have been slowly setting up their versatility out of extremely jumbo looks and this is quite likely the next wrinkle in that evolution. Hill was a scrimmage monster in the first game.
Been waiting all week for this prop. I honestly think in a certain game script he could be their leading receiver. Ravens ILBs (including Roquan Smith) are horrible in coverage on screens and shots passes to RBs between the hash marks. It's automatic and been there from Week 1 through the playoffs. Bills with struggle with traditional runs but the speedster in passing game is extension of that on high-percentage targets. Look what he did vs Lions, Rams Colts and Fins for a blueprint here, with even a little volume in the passing attack
A year removed from abandoning their run game, the Ravens have a chance for redemption - and a tremendous match-up for their 250-pound HOF RB who was in TEN last year. They can't get too cute in RZ or goal to go and that's backfired a bunch. They are going 6 OL more than any time in NFL and doing it all over the field. Bills don't have the mass to match up and Henry saw way more action in pass game than the norm in first meeting. Lamar is not a big drive finisher on the ground, nor is Pat Ricard or Justice Hill. It's all Henry. I foresee ample opportunity. Even if Bills know what's coming they aren't built to stop it.