This team has covered 11 in a row and 5 straight on the road...

Defense wins championships and covers ...

I just watched this movie 5 days ago and it was ugly ...

The last 15 game averages for both of these teams tell me all I need to know ..

Sparty is under in 14 of last 18 games and 10 of 11. They are under in 6 straight games by: 13.5, 37, 13.5, 7.5, 14.5, 10.5. Those 6 games have averaged 136 points. Sparty average 71/G in that span and allow just 66 in conference. Iowa can shoot, especially at home, but Izzo's defense is in top form. Will take away deep ball and rotate four 7-footers. Iowa under in 5 of last 7 at home. Those games averaged 152. Four of those games went under by 11.5 or more. Pace shouldn't be a problem for us. Iowa D stinks but Sparty doesn't shoot from 3.

Given the hype about new-look Warriors -rightfully so - I'm thinking this spread rises. I don't see us getting single digits. Warriors are 9-1 ATS with Himmy Butler in the lineup, they are motivated by playoff seeding and I don't see them letting up against a terrible Eastern Conference team after just doing it in Philly this week. Warriors have +12.5 net rating last 10 games (3rd): Nets -6 (24th). Nets can't score and sometimes Warriors can't miss. Nets have 5 straight losses by at least 8 points and lost 3 in a row at home by 8 plus (two by 13+). Nets 9-13 ATS as home dog, 14-18-1 ATS with equal rest. Warriors 20-11-1 ATS equal rest and 31-18-1 ATS outside their division.

These are two of the top 3 teams in MAAC in oppo FG% and opposing 3-point shooting, and the 9th and 12th top scoring teams in conference. No pace. Not much shot-making. Marist is over in 1 of last 6 games and 4 of last 5 games are 125 or lower. They are 6-3 under last 9 at home. Merrimack is 5-0 under when total is 127 or less. They are 13-6 under in conference and 10-5 under after a win. These teams went under in first meeting, 61-60. Tempo and scoring has slowed for both as season went on. I expect them to bring out the slog in each other again this time around.

Huskies offense is weak, and slow. I get all of this. But they're over in 8 of 10 games. They are allowing 83/G in their last 7 road games (6-1 over). Those games average 155. First game between them went over. USC is over in 13 of 17, 15-5 over with 2-3 days off, 12-6 over at home. When total is 150.5 and up he's 11-3 over. USC 6-2 over last 8 at home, averaging 157 points. Both bottom 5 D teams in Big 10, USC 2nd best in Big 10 from field, 2nd best from 3 land and WSH second-worst 3pt D in Big 10. USC 14-4 over in Big 10. USC under last game; have not gone under two in row all season.

Pistons probably cover here but we'll play it a little safer. They get Clippers on back to back spot; LAC 3-9 SU in those instances and below .500 vs Eastern Conference on the season. Clippers' offense struggles against teams that can play any D. Pistons are 12-3 in last 15 and a top NBA team - 4th in O rating and 3rd in D rating over last 15 games. They are a +12.1 in that span - 3rd in NBA. Pistons 8-1 last 9 ATS, covering by: 17.5, 8.5, 24.5, 6, 3, 10.5, 12, 35. Pistons 11-6-1 ATS vs West. If you aren't taking them seriously yet, what are you waiting for?

Thunder have cooled off from a covering standpoint, but this is a low number for them vs. the failing Grizz. OKC is 13-2 in last 15 games and won 12 of them by at least 8 points. They are averaging 129/G over the last 10 games - best in the NBA . Memphis' defense has collapsed, allowing 124.9/G over last 10 games - worst in NBA. Grizz have failed to cover 8 in a row and allowed 125+ in 7 of last 10 games, Maybe they fix their D eventually but I doubt it's here and they're short of confidence these days. OKC won first 2 meetings by 13 and 24 points. They'll be up to send a message to a Western Conference wannabe.

7 vs 2 seed - last time they met the Sharks held CHIST to 39 points. Yeah, for the game. LIU is a top 50 defensive team at home and with a bid at stake expect the vicegrips here. Sharks have won 6 in a row, 4 of them by 13 points or more, including their last 3 NEC games. Cougars have lost 5 straight, including 3 by 14 or more (losses by 22 and 42 too). Sharks covered 7 of last 9 at home. LIU lost a game at CHIST in OT, so cant take this for granted. LIU +6.1 in NEC play; Cougars -7.9 (last). CHIST 2nd worst rebounding margin, second worst D in the NEC.

Maybe this gets to 12.5, but I'm comfortable here. CCT was a force in NEC and face the 7 seed and worst D in the NEC, hosting them in conference tourney. LeMoyne allows 40% from 3, is 7-14 ATS as a dog, and are a -8.1 in conference; CCT is +11.7. LeMoyne is 2-7 ATS last 9 and 5-13 last 18. CCT has covered 9 of 12, all by multiple possessions and 14-7 ATS as home favorite and shot 54% from field and had 42 points in paint when these teams met about a week ago. Were -12.5 ten and won by 9. CCT is 15-5 ATS after a win and 6-1 ATS on 2-3 days rest. Score too easily for dog to keep close.

The Wolves are starting to look like last year's model. ANT is goofing off and dominating, Naz Reid is an offensive force, Julius Randle is finding his way and the offense finally looks connected. They are 7-4 ATS in back to back, come in of consecutive blowout wins and beat CHA by 21 already. Hornets are cooked. Lost 7 in a row and 6 of them by 13+. Humiliating losses is becoming their brand. Lost 8 in a row at home, 6 of them by 8+. Hornets 3-7 ATS last 10 after covering steady in first half. Wolves will smell blood here and pounce. Charlotte very limited offensively.

Wolverines lost their mojo at home after getting shocked by Sparty surviving Rutgers, and getting unmasked by Illinois. They're fading and vulnerable. Not as athletic or fast as the Terps. If Maryland can get running it will be a problem. UMD has 3 kids who shoot 40% from beyond the arc and figured out how to start winning on the road in Big 10. Their two bigs will present problems for a pressing Michigan team. Terps win out and get a double bye. Kevin Willard's ability to mix and match defensive styles will be a factor. Terps 11-3 in last 14, losing two on last second super deep buzzer beaters.

The Clippers may seem stuck in the mud lately on offense, but a lot of that has to do with elite defensive clubs they've been facing. Norman Powell should have legs under him back from injury and Clippers will be looking to fill the stat sheet against a a Suns team allowing NBA-worst 123/G over last 15 games. Suns are 25th in rebounding % in that span, and cannot - or refuse to - defense the 3-ball or interior. So many breakaway and second-chance points allowed. Clippers have hung 120-plus on bad D teams like CHI, UT, MEM (they're bad lately!), and had 109 last time vs Suns, who are in worse form now.