Matt's Picks (1 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
These two teams combined for 15 runs in both Monday and Tuesday's games. Marlins' starter Max Meyer has a 7.97 ERA in his last four games and faces a stellar Cubs offense. Cubs rookie Cade Horton won't go too deep and has a shaky bullpen behind him.
The Orioles have lost 14 of 16 games and have looked every bit that bad along the way. The Brewers are now 15-9 at home and starting pitcher Chad Patrick has a 3.04 ERA as a starter, but this is mostly about riding the Orioles' losing.
The Cardinals aren't familiar with his stuff (haven't seen him since 2021) and Tarik Skubal has struck out 11, 8, 12 and 11 in his last four starts, respectively. I know eight again is a tall order, but I love the plus money here and, for me, it's more likely he gets there than not.
It's probably time to just fade the Orioles, who have lost 13 of their last 15 and have looked every bit that bad in doing so. Logan Henderson is on the mound for the Brewers and he's been good so far this year in both Triple-A and the majors. Back the Brewers, but more importantly, bet against the O's.
The Braves are much better anyway, having gone 19-10 since April 16. Now they get Spencer Strider back on the mound and Ronald Acuna Jr. back in the lineup which provides a mental boost as well as the obvious on-field upgrade. They face Mitchell Parker of the Nats, who they hit hard last time.
Sutter Health Park is averaging 10.8 runs per game this season. The weather is hot and the wind is blowing out. These teams both have plenty of power hitters and the pitchers aren't going to provide enough resistance to avoid the over.
The Mariners just swept the Padres in San Diego by scores of 5-1, 4-1 and 6-1. The White Sox aren't nearly as tough as the Padres, obviously. Luis Castillo has been dominant in three of his last four starts, too, and his road splits were ruined by one bad start.
This number should be higher. The Orioles are the worst hitting team against lefties in the majors and MacKenzie Gore, a lefty, leads the majors with 75 strikeouts in 52 2/3 innings. He averages 8.33 strikeouts per start and struck out the O's eight times a few weeks ago.
I like a lot of scoring in this one. Tomoyuki Sugano has good surface-level numbers but he doesn't miss bats and he'll start getting knocked around. The Twins' offense is hot, too. On the other side, the Orioles carve up righties and Chris Paddack was crushed by them last year (5.1 IP, 12 H, 9 R). The two teams combined for 23 runs in a doubleheader Wednesday and there's more where that came from for Thursday.
Happy Charlie Morton Day! The Orioles are 0-8 in his appearances this season and he has a 9.76 ERA. The Orioles' offense looks bad right now, too. The Twins have won 9 of 14 while Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton hit well last night, plus, Royce Lewis is back.
Wacha has been great at home since joining the Royals and had a 1.33 ERA in four starts against the White Sox. The Sox are a heavy strikeout team, too, and he struck out 15 in his two starts against them in Kauffman last season. He'll get deep enough in the game to record a fifth K.
We're kind of riding the hot hand here with the A's having won 10 of their last 13. And while the Mariners have been hot lately as well, they send Emerson Hancock to the mound with his 6.62 ERA and allowed batting average of .347. I like the A's side better with Jeffrey Springs on the mound.
The Dodgers just scored seven runs in 2 2/3 innings against Sandy Alcantara on April 29 and get to see him again. He's broken right now. The Dodgers are the best team in baseball and the Marlins are awful. Easy play here and the juice isn't too bad.
The Giants have lost three of four while the Rockies have won two in a row, including a game on the road. It's time for that to even out a bit and a Giants blowout feels like the most likely outcome. Robbie Ray has been great at home, too.