Do we choose technical, fundamental, or psychological angles for the Potato Bowl? Technical? For NIU, note it is 4-18-1 as chalk since 2022; as for Fresno, it has covered its last five bowls. Fundamental? Both sides have seen their starting QBs enter the transfer portal, but NIU backup Josh Holst has taken considerable snaps this season and has accomplished himself as a runner from the pocket. Psychological? Tougher read here, as sources report Fresno players were not happy that interim HC Tim Skipper didn't get the job on a full-time basis, but will the remaining players dig deep a last time for Skipper? The edge? For us, we lean fundamental! Play NIU (Idaho Potato Bowl at Boise)

With both sides weakened by the fleeing of players to the portal, the initial inclination is to take the underdog. However, the teams are not equally impacted. Northern Illinois' offense leans on the run, so replacement QB Josh Hoist will not carry as much responsibility as pass-minded Fresno. Its two remaining QBs have thrown a combined eight passes and will be hampered by the departure of three impact WRs. Hoist got enough snaps to make 81 tosses and logged a start. The favored Huskies are 2-0 straight-up in bowls under coach Thomas Hammock. In a projected low-scoring encounter, siding with a team whose defense ranks fifth in FBS for yards allowed is an obvious call.

Northern Illinois will be competitive but what will keep them from covering the spread is the amount of losses they suffered in the transfer portal. With what the Bulldogs have on defense, I expect them to steal a few possessions away from NIU and help keep this one under this number.