We want to look more closely at the numbers for QB Cade Klubnik, whose overall stats (3041 YP, 29 TDP and only 5 picks, impress. Against Georgia, Louisville, and South Carolina, however, Klubnik passed for a grand total of 1 TD, with two picks, as Clemson scored 12.7 ppg and lost all three. Note that vs. App State, The Citadel, Wake Forest, and a then-struggling NC State, Klubnik tossed a combined 15 TDP and 0 picks. SMU is far better than the latter group of foes, as Rhett Lashlee's bold decision to sit returning starter Preston Stone and go with more-mobile Kevin Jennings at QB has paid dividends all autumn for the Mustangs, who haven't lost since September 6 vs. BYU. Play SMU (at Charlotte)

Switch the team names on the jerseys, and SMU would be spotting Clemson, which governed the ACC for years, more than a field goal. These Mustangs have pulled off a remarkable achievement: back-to-back unbeaten league records in separate conferences. Since a change with the QBs, they have scored at least 28 points in the past nine games. All four victories last month were by double digits. Flip to the defense, which has yielded at least 28 points to just one opponent. Clemson did win all seven ACC title matchups in Charlotte over a 12-year period In 2022, but this is not the big bully it once was.

This is the toughest game for me to pick this week which is why I'm only wagering half a unit. But the Tigers are playing on house money, considering they lost to South Carolina last week and got lucky to be here with a giant Syracuse upset over Miami. Dabo Swinney is 8-1 straight up in Conference Championship Games and has won eight straight. Plus, over the last decade, teams entering a conference championship on a 3+ game losing streak against the spread are 7-0 SU/ATS in those title games. A strange stat indeed, but adds to my belief that Clemson will knock an SEC team out of the CFP. Clemson 30, SMU 26.