Teams' transfer portal/opt-out situations are not created equally, even if the numbers are nearly identical. N.C. State bade farewell to fewer starters than Kansas State did. And one of the Wildcats' bow-outs was QB Will Howard. The Wolfpack can counter K-State's 13th-ranked rushing attack with the No. 15 rushing defense, though the absence of Butkus Award winner Payton Wilson could be problematic. Momentum often dissipates between the regular season finale and the bowls. If N.C. State can maintain its surge, having won the last five outright and going 6-1 ATS in the last seven, it has yet another advantage.

K-State will be without QB Will Howard (in the portal), but this can be the showcase for frosh Avery Johnson, who performed with plenty of flair in the second half of the season and accounted for nine TDs in limited snaps. Johnson's dynamic running ability figures to put the Wolfpack on their heels, but NC State had some late-season momentum (5-0 to close season) behind QB Brennan Armstrong, whose last two games were his best (537 YP, 5 TDP & 0 picks last two, plus 111 YR and two more TDs, vs. UNC and UVa). Note K-State's last four games averaged 71 points! Play K State-NC State "Over" (Pop-Tarts Bowl)

I think the wrong team is favored here. NC State won and covered in their last five games, four of which were against bowl bound teams. Kansas State was hit hard by opt-outs and the transfer portal and even before that, their defense had struggled down the stretch, giving up 127 points combined in their final four games. In what should be a fun and competitive game throughout, I'll roll with the Wolfpack. NC State 27, Kansas State 20.

Avery Johnson will start at quarterback for Kansas State after Will Howard hit the transfer portal, but I’m not too worried about Johnson. He has 301 yards passing, three touchdowns, hasn’t tossed an interception and has 225 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns this season. That, my friends, means that he is a “weapon.” It’s impossible to trust the Wolfpack’s offense at this point, so expect Kansas State to win in a track meet.