Kansas was unappealing when the spread flirted with two touchdowns. Now that it has plummeted to eight points for no particular known reason, the Jayhawks are a catch. Though Kansas has been thinned out on offense by defections from players and the O-coordinator, UNLV's defense is full of holes minus five impactful performers. Plus, Rebels starting QB Jayden Maiava has given way to Doug Brumfield, who did start one game but has far less seasoning. The Rebels' 10-3 ATS record is misleading; they dropped the closing two games against the line.

Rebel QB Jayden Maiavea had a terrific season but he is not the only reason the Rebels are bowl again. Their defense showed out under Barry Odom and his staff. Kansas went bowling last year and now must find a reason to play UNLV. The Rebels would love to beat a Big 12 team.

First bowl date in a decade for UNLV, which has to go all of the way back to the John Robinson era and 2000 for its last bowl win (vs. Arkansas in Las Vegas Bowl). The Rebs looked out of gas at the end of the season but we suspect the Jayden Maiava-led offense can do some business after reaching the 40-point level six times in the "Go-Go" offense installed by up-and-comer OC Brennan Marion. Kansas has functioned well with backup QB Jason Bean, but despite Lance Leipold's efforts, this has not been a dominant KU defense There's a case for the "over" but the Rebs also have enough pop to stay within earshot. Play UNLV (Guaranteed Rate Bowl)

The party appears to be over for UNLV, which emerged as one of college football's best stories this season. The historically moribund Rebels reached their first conference title game and will be in their first bowl game in 10 years. But they ended their season with consecutive losses on their home turf, and the turnstile is already getting greased. QB Jayden Maiava is in the transfer portal, and coach Barry Odom could be headed to another program by the time this kicks off. Kanas has had no significant transfers and coach Lance Leipold expects his key contributors to play. This line could easily close at -14.5 or steeper.