Army has won five of the last seven meetings in this series, and while the Black Knights have largely been impressive under Jeff Monken, they have dipped this year. Meanwhile, the Midshipmen have righted the ... nevermind ... in Year 1 under Brian Newberry with their best season since 2019. Navy has done that on the back of its defense, which actually ranks quite well nationally in nearly every category except defending the pass. Army, meanwhile, is horrendous defensively -- particularly against the run, which is where Navy's offense thrives. Generally, I have a much stronger play in the Army-Navy Game. But in this one, with a total around 28, I'm taking the points.

It's easy to get spooked by this "total" at 28, which is lower than any past Army-Navy "total" even considering the 16 straight in this series from 2006-21, and needed an OT to get "over" last year. But Iowa games have shown us that it's okay to look below 30, if that's where the trends lie, and they sure do in this rivalry and all Commander-in-Chief games, which are on a 46-10-1 "under" run, and "under" both earlier meetings this season involving Air Force that landed 23 and 26, respectively. Play Army-Navy "Under"

Usually we are jumping on the "under" in this matchup that landed that way every year from 2006 into last year, when only an overtime helped break the streak. Now, however, the "Iowa Factor" and "totals" dropping beneath 30 have contributed to a very low 28 or thereabouts. Maybe better value in the spreads, and have a bit more respect for Navy's accomplishments this season against a much-tougher schedule than West Point had to face. Brian Newberry's gnarly Mids defense also pitched three shutouts and was only on its heels vs. slick passing offenses like SMU's in the reg-season finale two weeks ago. Army does not possess that sort of threat. Play Navy (at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough)

In a season of record minuscule Unders -- here's looking at you, Iowa -- here is one last opportunity to get above a crazy-low number. It can be done after the teams exploded for 37 points in last year's meeting. Army's games averaged a reasonable 43 points this season, Navy's 41. The Middies allowed 59 in their latest outing against SMU. All we need is four touchdowns (and PATs). A small ask, even for these pass-averse squads.