Although veteran Utah QB Cameron Rising is unlikely to play as recovers from an ACL injury, the Utes should still have the edge in this one. They should be better in the trenches and coach Kyle Whittingham should have one of his top defensive units. Backup QB Bryson Barnes was serviceable in spot duty last year, and the Utes mostly outplayed Florida in Gainesville last year but came up short because of a late goal-line turnover. The Utes have the payback angle, the better team and a massive home-field edge at Rice-Eccles Stadium.

This unusual angst in Gainesville, where Billy Napier's maiden run turned into a bumpy ride last fall, is understandable. Gators transfer QB Graham Mertz didn't always impress at previous stop Wisconsin and will lack the dynamism of predecessor Anthony Richardson, who almost single-handedly knocked off the Utes last September. But Utah has some issues as well with late word that QB Cam Rising is not expected to play, with junior Bryson Barnes instead getting the start. Napier went 5-0 against-the-spread as a regular-season dog last year and was 10-1 in that role the past three seasons at Louisiana and Florida. I'm on the Gators.

The problem with this game is we don't know if Utah star QB Cam Rising will play off his torn ACL suffered in the Rose Bowl. That this has come tumbling down from a spread that was once 9.5 kinda tells you, but I also think that may be SEC fans being appalled their team was such a big dog. UF did beat the Utes in the 2022 opener but the Gators lost a lot off that mediocre team led by QB Anthony Richardson. I think Utah pulls this out at home (so tough to play there) even if Rising doesn't play but will half-unit it. If he does play, we get value as this already is the lowest ML for this game.

There's a lot of optimism around Florida this season but I'm not a believer in former Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz, who now runs the Gators offense. In the last two years, only one team (2022 USC) has come within 10 points of the Utes at home. If Utah's top QB, Cam Rising plays (uncertain at this time), I'll feel even more confident in this pick. Still, I love the revenge angle for the Utes to avenge last year's three point road loss.

As if playing in front of the raucous Utah fans wasn't enough, Florida had to change its travel/preparation plans and will leave Gainesville for Dallas on Tuesday and on to Salt Lake City on Wednesday due to Tropical Storm Adalia. The Gators were already in a rough spot with Graham Mertz as their starting quarterback, and the disruption in game prep will make matters worse. Even if Utah quarterback Cam Rising can't play, the Utes will win by 10+.