Dave Aranda has piled up some impressive ATS stats at Baylor, but the vast majority of them came last season when the Bears were in the same spot the Horned Frogs are now: underrated Big 12 leaders. One may think it's only a matter of time before TCU's magical season comes to an end, but that has been the case for weeks now. The facts are that the Frogs are winning games close, but they are consistently winning. TCU is averaging 40 points per game and 7 yards per play, and it's led by a quarterback in Max Duggan who has a 25-2 touchdown-interception ratio. The Frogs move the ball, take care of it and (as evidenced last week) can play defense when necessary. Baylor has simply underperformed all season, and while a home game off a blowout loss is a perfect spot for an upset, the Bears are not going to get enough in the passing game to finish the job. TCU has won six of the last seven meetings since 2015 with its lone loss coming in three overtimes in 2019.

TCU is the best team in the country against-the-spread at 8-1-1. The Frogs are not only winning, but they are also covering. The Bears are coming off a game in which they got killed at home and allowed Deuce Vaughn to run all over them. TCU has been running the ball extremely well this season with Kendre Miller, and I think Miller will be able to have success Saturday. I think TCU has the talent and confidence advantage.

The Horned Frogs are 7-1-1 against the spread this year, and are going up against a reeling Baylor team that has lost its defensive identity. TCU won with the ground game and defense last week, and has shown throughout the year that it is comfortable in shootouts as well. Nothing that the Bears do will intimidate TCU coach Sonny Dykes, and I fully expect Dykes to run up the score if he can, just in case his team needs some style points.

TCU is coming off two straight interstate rival wins, and the pressure is mounting to stay undefeated. Baylor was clearly looking ahead to this matchup when scoring just three points at home last week. Baylor is 11-4 against-the-spread as underdogs in its last 15 games and 13-5 ATS against winning teams the past three seasons. The Bears are undervalued in this spot so let's take the points.