Simulation Picks
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Understanding Public and Money
Expert Picks
I have learned well from my colleague Tom Fornelli. His rule is when two service academies play, take the under. It's a rule for a reason. In short, both teams run the option, which chews clock and keeps scoring down. It's also a rule because it hits about 80% of the time. I like those odds.
Service Academy Unders. Unders are now 42-9-1 since 2005 when service academies meet. There simply aren't enough possessions in the game for it to be high-scoring. The only way it goes over is if each team plays a near perfect game on offense.
Sorry, I accidentally hit Under on first pick when I clearly meant Over. One model I use basically says this is the least accurate total of the season in terms of expected points Over or Under. Per usual, these clubs lead the nation rushing and yeah that means the clock will be running a lot, but they can't combine for 41 points? Army has been quite good offensively overall in averaging 32.7 points. The Over is 5-2 in the Black Knights' past seven.