Illinois stunned the college football world in Week 0 of last year with a 30-22 home win over Nebraska as a double-digit underdog. The Illini promptly lost four straight on the way to a five-win season. Although Illinois has solid experience and could be headed toward a bowl-eligible season, the Illini rarely play well ATS as a big favorite. The Cowboys historically don't perform well against the Power 5 (1-4 ATS vs. Big Ten opponents), they should have a respectable defense and just getting to double figures could be enough to cover what has become a bloated spread on an unreliable chalk.

I like what Bret Bielema did at Illinois last year to close out the season after a 1-4 start. The Illini ran the ball well, forced turnovers and played good special teams and defense. They had a +7 turnover ratio and also outscored their Big Ten opponents 174-170 with wins against Minnesota, Penn State, Northwestern and Nebraska. Only 10 starters return, but the team added senior QB Tommy DeVito, who transferred from Syracuse, and he looked sharp in spring practice. Wyoming returns 10 starters as well, but I’m not so high on the new QB or the way the Cowboys closed out 2021. Illinois covers.

The Cowboys were decimated by departures, including stud receiver Isaiah Neyor. Plus, the entire left side of the offensive line has to be rebuilt. The Illini, on the other hand, have an established transfer quarterback in Tommy DeVito who isn’t going to be shocked by anything that the Cowboys throw at him. The combination of DeVito and established offensive skill players will force Wyoming into a shootout … and it isn’t built for that.

Wyoming was one of the stronger teams in the Mountain West last season, but lost nearly every impact player it had on offense. Quarterback Levi Williams transferred to Utah State, as did leading rusher Xazavian Valladay (Arizona State) and receiver Isaiah Neyor (Texas). There were also numerous departures on the defensive side of the ball. None of which will work to the Cowboys advantage against an Illinois team that might struggle to reach a bowl game in 2022, but should prove superior in this game.