The idea here is that it's a trap game for Michigan State not only coming off the Michigan win but coming against a team that has a penchant for beating top-five programs, particularly at home. meanwhile, this is only the second scenario this year when a top-five team is favored by 3 or less on the road against a ranked team. The other was Iowa absolutely dismantling Maryland. Mel Tucker seems to have the Spartans primed for each opponent and not looking ahead. I do not believe Michigan State to be as good as its ranking indicates, but it is strong enough -- and can control the ball well enough -- to win by a field goal against a team that has lost two straight at home.

Any possibility that the Spartans would suffer a letdown after they beat ultra-rival Michigan last Saturday was erased with their inclusion in the CFP rankings. The Spartans are 4-0 ATS away from home this season and hold an eight-game straight-up streak over the Boilermakers. RB Kenneth Walker III has climbed some rungs on the Heisman Trophy candidate ladder.

Michigan State is coming off the program’s biggest win since 2015 and may show up a little flat this week at Purdue. Purdue’s defense has been playing at a high level this season and recently has started to generate some takeaways. Oddly, the Boilermaker offense has been worse at home than on the road. This game figures to be played in the low 20s at most, so take the under.

I guess the idea here is that Michigan State will suffer a hangover from the aftermath of the win over Michigan, but I just don’t see it here. Purdue is ninth in the Big Ten in rushing defense at 138.5. That’s not going to work well against Heisman Trophy candidate and star running back Kenneth Walker III. Plus, it’s not like there’s a huge homefield advantage at Purdue.

This would be an ideal letdown spot for Michigan State after last week’s huge win against Michigan, but there’s no value to the number on an emotion. Michigan State should be -6 here. I don’t see a trap, I see value with the better team. I see a running back in Kenneth Walker III leading the nation in rushing and jumping into the Heisman battle. His lineman want it too, and so does the defense. It’s uniting them to think they can make the College Football Playoff. I’m on Sparty laying the short number.