This is a MUST win game for the Bearcats if they hope to have any chance at the College Football playoff. Not only is this a must win, but they really need a convincing road win against a power 5 school. Look for them to rely heavily on their defense, especially the elite secondary, to make life difficult for Michael Penix. Penix hasn't been great since returning from the ACL injury, and I think he will struggle to connect down field in this one. I make Cincinnati -7.8 points better here as I think their playoff dreams live for another two week until they face Notre Dame.

Indiana struggled in Week 1 against a really good Iowa defense, and the Hoosiers are facing another strong defense this week against Cincinnati. Our sims have Cincinnati holding Indiana to a full touchdown less than what Vegas has projected. Going back to last season, Indiana has scored just 40 combined points in its last three FBS games, while Cincinnati has held FBS opponents to 17 or fewer points in seven of its last 10 games. Cincinnati's one loss since last season came by just three points to Georgia, and the Bearcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. I feel more comfortable with the moneyline, but we see value on the spread and Under as well.

Do I think Cincinnati wins? Yes, but the Bearcats have had some sloppy mistakes in the first two games and played at home against really bad teams. Thus, I'm not going to give a good Hoosiers team 3.5 points on its own field. Now that the spread has come down from 4.5 to 3.5, it makes this moneyline price more palatable. The Bearcats went up against new Indiana DC Charlton Warren during last year’s season 24-21 Peach Bowl loss to Georgia (Warren was Dawgs DBs coach). Obviously, Indiana doesn't have Georgia's personnel.