This oversized line is a product of the typical overreaction to Week 1 results. Oregon escaped underappreciated Fresno State, winning by seven, while trying not to be distracted by the magnitude of its next game. The Buckeyes downed Minnesota by 14 in a struggle that was made easier when Gophers plowhorse RB Mohamed Ibrahim departed with an injury after racking up 163 yards. The Ducks have a deep well of talent that can hang with the home side. Senior QB Anthony Brown brings the experience and maturity to help Oregon mitigate the Buckeyes’ significant home-field edge.

I expect Oregon to take a similar approach to this game that Minnesota did last week, especially since it's on the road. With Anthony Brown at QB, Oregon is more dangerous as a rushing team than passing, and the Ducks will look to run the ball and keep Ohio State off the field. I don't think it'll be enough to win, but it will keep the scoring down. Plus, CJ Stroud looked shaky last week, and had to rely on his receivers picking up yards after short throws. I don't expect the Oregon defense to be as kind in that department as Minnesota's was.

The Buckeyes defensive front showed against Minnesota that it has the same issue that it did last year -- it can’t last for a full 60 minutes. Meanwhile, Ducks coach Mario Cristobal has made it a point to recruit a roster that can consistently win the battles at the line of scrimmage. The two-headed Ducks rushing attack will pound the rock, wear down the Buckeyes and at the very least keep it within two touchdowns.

This spread has moved to -14.5 at pretty most books, so it's only a matter of time that it will at Caesars. So let's take it now because I seriously doubt whether Ducks superstar defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux plays after injuring his ankle in Saturday's win over Fresno State. He's that much of a difference-maker. Oregon also lost starting linebacker Dru Mathis and he's for sure out. Also working against the Ducks: 10 a.m. Pacific time kickoff and the Nuts on two extra days of rest. I hate this right on 14 and will be playing an alt line of -13.5 but for SportsLine purposes I'd obviously rather have -14 than -14.5. Oregon is 1-7 ATS in its past eight as a dog.