I like this price at -8.5 (-110) or lower or -9 (-105) but I wouldn't lay more than -110 at -8.5 in this spot. The market has overreacted to the absence of head coach Lane Kiffin (COVID-19) as this line is now priced as if this were a true road game. With the neutral site in Atlanta I make the Rebels -11.8 points better thanks to a massive edge at QB.

The Rebels have the best quarterback in the SEC in Matt Corral and Ole Miss has my 10th-highest rating. Money has come in on Louisville because head coach Lane Kiffin (COVID-19) will not be on the sideline. But I'm sure he will be in his own private booth, communicating with his staff. The line move gives us extra value.

The over/under suggests that this will be a shootout, and there's no doubt that it will be. But that total is just a bit high. While Ole Miss' offense, led by coach Lane Kiffin, quarterback Matt Corral and running back Jerrion Ealy, will cruise up and down the field, the Rebels' defense will show signs of life for the first time in two years. With that said, a few stops on the Cardinals will go a long way toward putting this one in the win column for the Rebs. This one feels more like a 45-24 style game rather than "basketball on grass."

I realize both these teams were awful defensively last year, especially Ole Miss. However, this total is crazy and the biggest reason I am going Under is that the Rebs will be without head coach Lane Kiffin. Now, I think Kiffin is more important to Ole Miss than Nick Saban is to Alabama. Before Tide fans lose their minds, let me explain: Kiffin is his team's offensive play-caller. Saban doesn't call plays. Thus, we have to downgrade the Ole Miss offense a bit. And I actually think its defense will be better with nine starters back. This should end something like 40-30 so we're going Under (I'm not playing the spread).

Few coaches in college football exercise a greater in-game influence than Lane Kiffin of Ole Miss. He is all about offense, and he dives deeply into the play-calling. Now that he has been scratched because of COVID-19, the role transfers to an assistant from whom the players are unaccustomed to taking directions. The total that was a tad too high to begin with is unlikely to be reached. Both defenses should be improved over a year ago, which admittedly isn’t saying much, but the Rebels’ previous final score was 26-20, perhaps a harbinger for this season. The Cardinals even recorded a shutout of Syracuse in their ninth game last year.