Throw out last week's results. Seriously. Little in college football has been consistent week to week this season, and given what Ohio State and Penn State respectively showed in their first games, it's little surprise that the Buckeyes were favored by as many as 12 this week. Now that the line is back to normal, we play it. Penn State is down its two primary running backs and will be featuring a ferocious defense. Ohio State is missing one key starter in the middle of its D but has plenty of talent throughout. My biggest concern is the Buckeyes being able to consistently run the ball, but if Justin Fields can get lose, this may not be close.

Ohio State started to look like the Ohio State we saw last year in the second half of its game last week against Nebraska. I would expect the Buckeyes to be able to hit the ground running this week. Penn State's backfield has been decimated by injury after injury. That puts a lot of pressure on QB Sean Clifford and the passing game, which will make the Lions vulnerable against the Buckeyes pass rush. Bad timing and matchup here for Penn State

Penn State lost leading rusher Journey Brown last week and his successor Noah Cain this week. The Nittany Lions are going to have to rely heavily on quarterback Sean Clifford through the air and on the ground. That isn’t going to work against Justin Fields and the dynamic Ohio State offense. This might be a shootout, because Ohio State’s linebackers didn’t look great last week vs. Nebraska, but that’ll change this week against a Penn State team that lacks a true identity.

Arguably no Big Ten team has played the Buckeyes better recently than Penn State. Just 16 points have decided the last four meetings, and the last three matchups at Beaver Stadium have been tight, with no game being decided by more than seven points. The Nittany Lions' narrow loss at Indiana last week inflated this number a bit, but I still believe these are the two best teams in the Big Ten. My model says Penn State covers almost 60 percent of the time, so you're getting value at this number.