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Understanding Public and Money
McNeese was one of the more impressive teams in the first round, and the Cowboys athleticism is undeniable. Purdue looked really good in the first round, but when I think back to what I saw from the Boilermakers during the regular season, this is a spot where Matt Painter's team should be on upset alert. I expect a tight game, with McNeese getting the cover.
Southland sources tell us that Will Wade believes the matchups are good for his McNeese on Saturday as they were vs. Clemson. The quickness edge the Cowboys enjoyed was noticeable vs. the Tigers, who had trouble coping with Wade's various zone defense looks, and didn't find any answers until the final few minutes in a belated rally. Purdue's bomb squad led by Gs Braden Smith (16.2 ppg/38,6% triples) and Fletcher Loyer (13.6 ppg/ 46.1% triples) are dangerous dagger throwers, but the slowish Boilermakers are the type of team McNeese can harass. The question is if Wade's balanced offense can hit better from deep (only 21% on Thursday) and continue to crash the boards. One hot scorer and Purdue sweats. Play McNeese (NCAA at Providence)
We’re going to keep riding Will Wade’s Cowboys after getting even more than we were hoping for in the opening round upset of Clemson. After the win, McNeese has a wagering profile that includes covering the spread against Alabama, Clemson and Mississippi State, all away from home. Now they face a Purdue team that’s been wildly inconsistent defensively and is overly reliant on Braden Smith as an offensive creator. Smith will be a huge factor in getting Purdue settled when McNeese brings the press, but it might only be enough to avoid the outright upset. The underdog played like the more physical team in McNeese’s first game, and I’m expecting that intensity to carry over into another close game.
This could be a real slog. McNeese is 277th in pace and Purdue is 303. McNeese wants to slow you down and beat you up and win a low-scoring game. They don't shoot the three ball that well and won't give away easy looks on opponent's threes. This is a top 60 defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 40%. They are under in 9 of their last 13. Neither team great at the foul line. Boilers under in 8 of last 11 road/neutral games. They may have to collapse more to defend two-point shots. McNeeses 6-2 under when total between 140-144 points. Purdue could get a little tight here.