Yep, Moneyline Matt is at it again. But I've finally stopped crying -- and ordered a baby goat online -- after the Severance season 2 finale. So good. I'm obviously different than most on here. I go look for who wins first, cycle through and see if value. I had a hard-a** dad who always taught me to win. So it may bleed over to gambling (think Emilio in Breakfast Club). Then I go back and see if an underdog has value. I destroyed Gonzaga ML vs. Georgia in Round 1, but it was too high to post on here. This is bordering on too high, but maybe the worst Gonzaga team in years and perhaps the best Houston one.

I’m going to jump on the other side of what I think might be an overreaction to Gonzaga absolutely pasting Georgia in the opening round. That was one of the most experienced programs of the 21st Century when it comes to the NCAA Tournament going up against a group that hadn’t been in the Big Dance in a decade. Houston is clearly on a different level, but it’s also hitting a different gear here in the tournament as made clear by a total dismantling of SIU-Edwardsville on Thursday. The Cougars’ defense can cause real problems for Gonzaga’s guards, and I think that prevents the high-powered offense from ever finding a rhythm.

We've got a classic matchup with the top defense in the nation against the second-best offense with Gonzaga that scores 86.7 a game. Houston's been doing it for the last couple of years and they're leading again with points allowed at 57.9 per game and they allow 38.1% shooting and Gonzaga shoots at 50.1% which is 4th-best. In theory, this is a great matchup, but good defense usually beats the great offense. Gonzaga hasn't seen a team defend like this. Sticky gnats frustrate the ball handlers every move. Houston only lost four games, and Gonzaga lost eight. The Cougars have a 14-game winning streak going. Houston wins.