Illinois wants to run and gun, especially at home, and they take too many 3s but lately they have started to fall with more regularity and their offense cranks up at home. Purdue is just 12th in Big 10 defending the 3 ball. ILL over in 5 of last 7 at home, games averaging 155. This should tick up. They allow 75/G at home and lead Big 10 at 82/G scored. Purdue over in 8 of last 11, 7 going over by multi-possessions. Purdue is not at stout on D on the road. Banking on Illinois starting with energy and wanting to run. No Big 10 team attempts more shots than ILL

Purdue is 1-3 SU on their last four on the road and 3-1 to the under on those games as well. However, the only game that went over was against Iowa, who’s all offense, no defense, and the Fighting Illini are going to push the pace in this one. Purdue has struggled defending in the paint without Zach Edey, near the bottom of the country in defense inside the arc. They’ll be tested in the paint against this Fighting Illini team that can get to the rim and have the edge in rebounding. Purdue may have a difficult time slowing down this offense averaging 84 points at home.

Illinois rates out top-35 nationally in defensive efficiency but in a small sample size of recent conference play this is a group that has not met in its own standard defensively in the last month. Purdue has gotten absolutely carved up on the interior of their defense as well and I don’t see any answers prior to Friday night’s regular season finale, especially with all the mismatches that Illinois will try to exploit with their size and skill. The Boilermakers should be able to do their part, too, especially after putting up 100 points on Rutgers earlier in the week. It's a high total for a reason and a game that could easily be decided in the 80s.