UConn has feasted on cupcakes, beating no-name opponents by 36, 39, 41, 35 and 54 points. The Huskies have had trouble digesting "name teams, going 0-3 straight-up, and they will miss injured leading scorer Alex Karaban. Baylor's only losses are to Gonzaga and Tennessee, both ranked among the top six by AP, and the Bears handled formidable foes Arkansas and St. John's. UConn's home-court prowess is documented, but Baylor enters as the more accomplished and healthier team for now.

I thought UConn would be overvalued entering the season and we saw that at the Maui Invitational where the Huskies lost three games. However, now I think it's swung the other way. I make UConn -4 in this matchup at home. Both team struggle to guard the perimeter but Baylor ranks an ugly 355th in three-point field goal percentage defense. That will be an issue against a UConn offense that ranks Top 40 in three-point attempts per game. The Bears didn't look good vs. Gonzaga and Tennessee and trailed St. John's by 20. I like UConn to win its 25th straight game at home.