This feels like a potential flat spot for a rugged Illini club that exuded a lot of effort on its way to the Big Ten tournament title. The Eagles have an experienced and poised core of players who won't be intimated by this stage and should push Illinois to the wire.

Both teams are a combined 6-2 ATS on neutral floors. Illinois has the rebounding edge in this contest, but the Eagles have an above average defense. They’re 9th in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage on the defensive side. Morehead State wants a slower paced game but are available to play an up-tempo style. The Fighting Illini played well in the Big-10 tournament and may have exhausted some energy in winning the title. Morehead State is very efficient from beyond the arc and the Fighting Illini struggle defending it.

Illinois is coming off a draining Big Ten Tournament title run, and the last nine teams to accomplish that feat went 2-7 ATS in their NCAA Tournament opener. Morehead State plays at a very slow pace, which means fewer possessions than Illinois would like. There is vulnerability here, as the Illini have allowed opponents to shoot 39 percent from beyond the arc over the past two months. The Eagles live by the 3-pointer and have made more than 300 of them. The opening number provided more value, but I still like the Eagles to stay within single digits.